Riding profile

Nipissing--Timiskaming

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Nipissing--Timiskaming: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.0%
  • Conservative 36.1%
  • NDP 3.4%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereNipissing--Timiskaming 47.0%36.1%3.4%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −2.1 35.3% +0.9 4.8% −1.4 2.0% −0.1
National averageCanada 48.0% −1.0 32.1% +4.0 10.6% −7.3 2.7% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Nipissing--Timiskaming, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 6% francophone, 92% anglophone.

Sitting member

Pauline Rochefort

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
2.6 pts
Turnout
69.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pauline Rochefort Elected Liberal 27,674 47.2 Mayor
Garry Keller Conservative 26,121 44.6 Consultant
Valerie Kennedy NDP 3,548 6.1 Transportation Coordinator
John Janssen PPC 648 1.1 Information Technology
Louise Poitras Green 585 1.0 Gardener

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 6.3%
  • Anglophone 92.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46