Riding profile

Nipissing--Timiskaming

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Nipissing--Timiskaming: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Nipissing--Timiskaming, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 39% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 6% francophone, 92% anglophone.

Sitting member

Pauline Rochefort

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
4.5
P(close race)
60%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 43.1%
  • Conservative 38.6%
  • NDP 4.7%
  • Green 1.5%
  • PPC 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereNipissing--Timiskaming 43.1%38.6%4.7%1.5%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% −2.5 37.5% +1.1 6.4% −1.7 1.6% −0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +1.2 34.8% +3.8 14.2% −9.5 2.1% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
2.6 pts
Turnout
69.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pauline Rochefort Elected Liberal 27,674 47.2 Mayor
Garry Keller Conservative 26,121 44.6 Consultant
Valerie Kennedy NDP 3,548 6.1 Transportation Coordinator
John Janssen PPC 648 1.1 Information Technology
Louise Poitras Green 585 1.0 Gardener

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 6.3%
  • Anglophone 92.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46