Riding profile

Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 47.1%
  • Liberal 37.5%
  • NDP 2.8%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereAlgonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke 47.1%37.5%2.8%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +11.9 49.1% −11.5 4.8% −2.0 2.0% −0.2
National averageCanada 32.1% +15.0 48.0% −10.5 10.6% −7.8 2.7% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 2% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Cheryl Gallant

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
17.8 pts
Turnout
72.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Cheryl Gallant Elected Conservative 37,333 55.7 Parliamentarian
Cyndi Mills Liberal 25,338 37.8 Business Owner
Eileen Jones-Whyte NDP 2,469 3.7 Teacher
Randy Briand Other 909 1.4 Retired Teacher
Danilo Velasquez Green 618 0.9 Customer Support Specialist
Seth Malina Independent 229 0.3 Student
Stefan Klietsch Independent 122 0.2 Call Centre Agent

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.9%
  • Anglophone 96.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46