Riding profile

Pontiac--Kitigan Zibi

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Pontiac--Kitigan Zibi: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Pontiac--Kitigan Zibi, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 32% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 63% francophone, 32% anglophone.

Sitting member

Sophie Chatel

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.2%
  • Conservative 32.4%
  • Bloc 10.2%
  • NDP 5.7%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HerePontiac--Kitigan Zibi 52.2%32.4%10.2%5.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +11.5 26.9% +5.5 27.3% −17.1 7.0% −1.3
National averageCanada 41.9% +10.3 34.8% −2.4 6.1% +4.1 14.2% −8.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
26.7 pts
Turnout
69.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sophie Chatel Elected Liberal 32,088 54.6 Parliamentarian
Brian Nolan Conservative 16,221 27.6 Senior Project Officer
Suzanne Proulx Bloc 6,071 10.3 Manager
Gilbert W. Whiteduck NDP 2,971 5.1 Mental Health and Addictions Counsellor
Claude Bertrand Green 749 1.3 Retired
Todd Hoffman PPC 673 1.1 Brewer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 63.2%
  • Anglophone 32.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46