Riding profile

Laurentides--Labelle

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Laurentides--Labelle: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.3
P(close race)
20%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 44.2%
  • Liberal 37.0%
  • Conservative 16.4%
  • NDP 4.9%
  • Green 2.3%
  • PPC 1.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereLaurentides--Labelle 44.2%37.0%16.4%4.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +16.9 45.4% −8.4 24.8% −8.4 5.1% −0.1
National averageCanada 5.7% +38.5 48.0% −11.0 32.1% −15.7 10.6% −5.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Laurentides--Labelle, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 44% vote share, against 37% for the Liberal Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 95% francophone, 4% anglophone.

Sitting member

Marie-Hélène Gaudreau

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
9.5 pts
Turnout
65.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Hélène Gaudreau Elected Bloc 23,615 44.6 Parliamentarian
Emrick Vienneau Liberal 18,514 34.9 Operations and Communications Assistant
Daniel Paquette Conservative 7,900 14.9 Entrepreneur
Michel Noël De Tilly NDP 1,341 2.5 Retired Physiotherapist
Michel Le Comte Green 864 1.6 Naturopath
Amélie Charbonneau PPC 749 1.4 Administrative Assistant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 95.3%
  • Anglophone 4.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46