Riding profile

Joliette--Manawan

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Joliette--Manawan: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 48.8%
  • Liberal 33.3%
  • Conservative 16.7%
  • NDP 4.9%
  • Green 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereJoliette--Manawan 48.8%33.3%16.7%4.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +21.5 45.4% −12.1 24.8% −8.1 5.1% −0.2
National averageCanada 5.7% +43.1 48.0% −14.7 32.1% −15.4 10.6% −5.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Joliette--Manawan, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 49% vote share, against 33% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 95% francophone, 2% anglophone.

Sitting member

Gabriel Ste-Marie

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
17.7 pts
Turnout
64.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gabriel Ste-Marie Elected Bloc 28,196 49.3 Parliamentarian
Marc Allaire Liberal 17,890 31.3 Teacher
Pascal Bapfou Vozang Siewe Conservative 8,721 15.2 CPA, Government of Canada
Vanessa Gordon NDP 1,408 2.5 Professor
Érica Poirier Green 1,014 1.8 Computer Programmer-Analyst

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 95.3%
  • Anglophone 1.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46