Riding profile

Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 89% francophone, 10% anglophone.

Sitting member

Stéphane Lauzon

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 45.0%
  • Conservative 29.1%
  • Bloc 22.5%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereArgenteuil--La Petite-Nation 45.0%29.1%22.5%5.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +4.2 26.9% +2.2 27.3% −4.8 7.0% −2.0
National averageCanada 41.9% +3.1 34.8% −5.7 6.1% +16.4 14.2% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
22.4 pts
Turnout
64.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stéphane Lauzon Elected Liberal 28,124 47.5 Parliamentarian
Martin Charron Conservative 14,697 24.8 Self-Employed
Martin Héroux Bloc 13,520 22.8 Comedian
Michel Welt NDP 1,499 2.5 Medical Doctor
Bertha Fuchsman-Small Green 807 1.4 Retired
Lindsey Therrien PPC 586 1.0 Public Servant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 89.4%
  • Anglophone 9.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46