Riding profile

Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 49.4%
  • Conservative 27.2%
  • Bloc 22.5%
  • NDP 3.1%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereArgenteuil--La Petite-Nation 49.4%27.2%22.5%3.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +4.0 24.8% +2.4 27.3% −4.8 5.1% −2.0
National averageCanada 48.0% +1.4 32.1% −4.9 5.7% +16.8 10.6% −7.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 27% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 89% francophone, 10% anglophone.

Sitting member

Stéphane Lauzon

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
22.4 pts
Turnout
64.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stéphane Lauzon Elected Liberal 28,124 47.5 Parliamentarian
Martin Charron Conservative 14,697 24.8 Self-Employed
Martin Héroux Bloc 13,520 22.8 Comedian
Michel Welt NDP 1,499 2.5 Medical Doctor
Bertha Fuchsman-Small Green 807 1.4 Retired
Lindsey Therrien PPC 586 1.0 Public Servant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 89.4%
  • Anglophone 9.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46