Riding profile
Prescott--Russell--Cumberland
The question
Prescott--Russell--Cumberland: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 22.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePrescott--Russell--Cumberland | 54.3% | 31.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +5.2 | 35.3% −3.5 | 4.8% −2.3 | 2.0% |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +6.3 | 32.1% −0.3 | 10.6% −8.1 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Prescott--Russell--Cumberland, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 32% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 51% francophone, 47% anglophone.
Sitting member
Giovanna Mingarelli
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanna Mingarelli Elected | Liberal | 39,110 | 54.8 | Entrepreneur |
| Julie Séguin | Conservative | 28,805 | 40.3 | Executive Policy Officer |
| Ryder Finlay | NDP | 1,730 | 2.4 | Administrative Assistant |
| Thaila Riden | Green | 787 | 1.1 | Stay-at-Home Parent |
| Deborah Perrier | PPC | 725 | 1.0 | Administrative Clerk |
| Jason St-Louis | Independent | 236 | 0.3 | Driving Instructor |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 51.4%
- Anglophone 47.0%
- Non-francophone (other) 1.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46