Riding profile
Stormont--Dundas--Glengarry
The question
Stormont--Dundas--Glengarry: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.2
- P(close race)
- 3%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStormont--Dundas--Glengarry | 47.7% | 39.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 35.3% +12.5 | 49.1% −9.6 | 4.8% −2.3 | 2.0% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +15.6 | 48.0% −8.5 | 10.6% −8.1 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Stormont--Dundas--Glengarry, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 39% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 10% francophone, 88% anglophone.
Sitting member
Eric Duncan
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Duncan Elected | Conservative | 37,399 | 56.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Sarah Good | Liberal | 26,407 | 39.8 | Engagement |
| Mario Leclerc | NDP | 1,653 | 2.5 | Paralegal |
| Gordon Kubanek | Green | 674 | 1.0 | Retired Teacher |
| Karl Ivan MacKinnon | Other | 274 | 0.4 | Dairy Worker |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 9.7%
- Anglophone 87.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 2.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46