Riding profile

Stormont--Dundas--Glengarry

Federal riding — ON · Rural · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Stormont--Dundas--Glengarry: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Stormont--Dundas--Glengarry, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 10% francophone, 88% anglophone.

Sitting member

Eric Duncan

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 50.2%
  • Liberal 35.6%
  • NDP 3.8%
  • Green 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereStormont--Dundas--Glengarry 50.2%35.6%3.8%1.5%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +12.7 45.6% −10.0 6.4% −2.6 1.6% −0.1
National averageCanada 34.8% +15.4 41.9% −6.3 14.2% −10.4 2.1% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
16.4 pts
Turnout
68.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eric Duncan Elected Conservative 37,399 56.3 Parliamentarian
Sarah Good Liberal 26,407 39.8 Engagement
Mario Leclerc NDP 1,653 2.5 Paralegal
Gordon Kubanek Green 674 1.0 Retired Teacher
Karl Ivan MacKinnon Other 274 0.4 Dairy Worker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 9.7%
  • Anglophone 87.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46