Riding profile

Abitibi--Témiscamingue

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Abitibi--Témiscamingue: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 49.0%
  • Liberal 29.2%
  • Conservative 21.1%
  • NDP 5.3%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereAbitibi--Témiscamingue 49.0%29.2%21.1%5.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +21.7 45.4% −16.2 24.8% −3.7 5.1% +0.3
National averageCanada 5.7% +43.3 48.0% −18.8 32.1% −11.0 10.6% −5.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Abitibi--Témiscamingue, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 49% vote share, against 29% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 96% francophone, 4% anglophone.

Sitting member

Sébastien Lemire

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
22.0 pts
Turnout
62.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sébastien Lemire Elected Bloc 24,774 49.4 Public Relations Specialist
Jonathan Andresen Liberal 13,551 27.0 Vice President of Marketing
Steve Tardif Conservative 9,861 19.7 Mechanic
Jérémie Juneau NDP 1,480 3.0 Operator
Vincent Palin-Bussières Other 449 0.9 Musician

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 95.9%
  • Anglophone 3.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46