Vote-Scope Labs · Updated November 2, 2026
U.S. Senate 2026
Here is what Orbit, our experimental model, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.
Democrat · Chance of control
58% Harfang 80% Seats won: 54 · Harfang 53Republican · Chance of control
37% Harfang 10% Seats won: 46 · Harfang 47Generic ballot according to Orbit
D 54.5 · R 45.4 Days to election: 1Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?
They agree
-
Democrat -
Republican
What if we listened to both engines at once?
50/50 blend: Democrat 53 · Chance of control69%
The blend gives each riding the average of the chances announced by Orbit and by our reference forecast, then counts the favourites. In our Quebec replays (2018 and 2022, the day before the vote), the blend always beat the reference forecast alone: in 2018 the error drops from 6.5 to 4.5 seats, and the announced probabilities become far more reliable. The 50/50 split is a choice of principle, not a setting tuned on those two elections. Its first real blind test came in Quebec on October 5: the blend picked the right winner in 114 of 127 ridings, against 110 for the reference forecast and 113 for Orbit, and its probabilities were the best calibrated of the three. One election is not enough to conclude: British Columbia is its second test.
The election, drawn on a real quantum computer
Each contested race becomes one qubit, tuned so that measuring it returns each party with exactly its chance according to Orbit. One measurement of the circuit is one complete election. We repeated the measurement thousands of times, across 256 national scenarios, from a Democratic wave to a Republican comeback.
- Machine:
- ibm_marrakesh
- Draw:
- November 1 at 09:04 PM EST
- Elections drawn:
- 16,384
- Qubits per circuit:
- 36
- Machine time:
- 7 s
Democrat seats: what the machine drew
- Raw draw from the machine
- After readout-error correction
- Orbit’s exact calculation
Average seats by party
| Party | Exact | Machine, raw | Machine, corrected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 51.8 | 51.8 | 51.8 |
| Republican | 47.4 | 47.4 | 47.4 |
| Other | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Chance of a majority: Democrat | 60% | 60% | 60% |
All 35 races, one by one
For each race: the favourite’s chance according to Orbit’s exact calculation, and how often the machine made it win. Safe races (0 qubits) skip the machine: the same party wins in every scenario.
| Race | Qubits | Favourite | Exact | Machine | Other outcomes drawn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama (AL) | 1 | Republican | 91% | 89% | Democrat 11% |
| Alaska (AK) | 1 | Democrat | 55% | 55% | Republican 45% |
| Arkansas (AR) | 1 | Republican | 79% | 80% | Democrat 20% |
| Colorado (CO) | 1 | Democrat | 84% | 85% | Republican 15% |
| Delaware (DE) | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| Florida (FL) | 1 | Republican | 65% | 65% | Democrat 35% |
| Georgia (GA) | 1 | Democrat | 80% | 79% | Republican 21% |
| Idaho (ID) | 1 | Republican | 92% | 91% | Other 9% |
| Illinois (IL) | 1 | Democrat | 92% | 91% | Republican 9% |
| Iowa (IA) | 1 | Democrat | 50% | 51% | Republican 49% |
| Kansas (KS) | 1 | Democrat | 55% | 55% | Republican 45% |
| Kentucky (KY) | 1 | Republican | 78% | 78% | Democrat 22% |
| Louisiana (LA) | 1 | Republican | 58% | 59% | Democrat 41% |
| Maine (ME) | 1 | Democrat | 60% | 61% | Republican 39% |
| Massachusetts (MA) | 1 | Democrat | 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| Michigan (MI) | 1 | Democrat | 62% | 63% | Republican 37% |
| Minnesota (MN) | 1 | Democrat | 66% | 66% | Republican 34% |
| Mississippi (MS) | 1 | Republican | 60% | 61% | Democrat 39% |
| Montana (MT) | 2 | Republican | 94% | 94% | Democrat 6% |
| Nebraska (NE) | 1 | Republican | 51% | 52% | Other 48% |
| New Hampshire (NH) | 1 | Democrat | 68% | 67% | Republican 33% |
| New Jersey (NJ) | 1 | Democrat | 92% | 92% | Republican 8% |
| New Mexico (NM) | 1 | Democrat | 92% | 92% | Republican 8% |
| North Carolina (NC) | 1 | Democrat | 84% | 83% | Republican 17% |
| Ohio (OH) | 1 | Democrat | 63% | 63% | Republican 37% |
| Oklahoma (OK) | 1 | Republican | 97% | 97% | Democrat 3% |
| Oregon (OR) | 1 | Democrat | 94% | 94% | Republican 6% |
| Rhode Island (RI) | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| South Carolina (SC) | 1 | Democrat | 51% | 51% | Republican 49% |
| South Dakota (SD) | 1 | Republican | 78% | 78% | Other 22% |
| Tennessee (TN) | 1 | Republican | 96% | 95% | Democrat 5% |
| Texas (TX) | 1 | Democrat | 65% | 64% | Republican 36% |
| Virginia (VA) | 1 | Democrat | 89% | 89% | Republican 11% |
| West Virginia (WV) | 1 | Republican | > 99% | 99% | Democrat 1% |
| Wyoming (WY) | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | Democrat < 1% |
What this shows, and what it does not
- It shows that a real quantum computer can already draw an entire American election, district by district, and how much its noise distorts it: a qubit that flips hands a race to the less likely party.
- Readout-error correction, calibrated by IBM for every qubit, removes a good share of that gap.
- It does not make the forecast more accurate: Orbit already computes the same distribution exactly, on an ordinary computer. It is an experiment, published with its IBM job IDs.
IBM jobs: dbjuv70nceqs73akrkfg
All 35 races: Harfang des neiges, Orbit and the blend
For each race, the favourite and its chance of winning according to our main forecast (Harfang des neiges), according to Orbit, and according to the 50/50 blend, which averages the two chances. The two models pick the same favourite in 34 of 35 races. The other one is flagged.
| Race | Harfang des neiges | Orbit | 50/50 blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Republican 98% | Republican 94% | Republican 96% |
| Alaska | Democrat 63% | Democrat 54% | Democrat 59% |
| Arkansas | Republican > 99% | Republican 84% | Republican 92% |
| Colorado | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 94% | Democrat 97% |
| Delaware | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 97% | Democrat 98% |
| Florida | Republican 90% | Republican 71% | Republican 81% |
| Georgia | Democrat 95% | Democrat 77% | Democrat 86% |
| Idaho | Republican 82% | Republican 93% | Republican 87% |
| Illinois | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 90% | Democrat 95% |
| Iowasplit | Republican 51% | Democrat 51% | Republican 50% |
| Kansas | Democrat 68% | Democrat 57% | Democrat 62% |
| Kentucky | Republican 94% | Republican 82% | Republican 88% |
| Louisiana | Republican 90% | Republican 63% | Republican 76% |
| Maine | Democrat 71% | Democrat 62% | Democrat 66% |
| Massachusetts | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| Michigan | Democrat 85% | Democrat 63% | Democrat 74% |
| Minnesota | Democrat 91% | Democrat 67% | Democrat 79% |
| Mississippi | Republican 67% | Republican 65% | Republican 66% |
| Montana | Republican 78% | Republican 94% | Republican 86% |
| Nebraska | Republican 73% | Republican 53% | Republican 63% |
| New Hampshire | Democrat 98% | Democrat 70% | Democrat 84% |
| New Jersey | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 93% | Democrat 96% |
| New Mexico | Democrat 99% | Democrat 93% | Democrat 96% |
| North Carolina | Democrat 95% | Democrat 82% | Democrat 88% |
| Ohio | Democrat 71% | Democrat 63% | Democrat 67% |
| Oklahoma | Republican > 99% | Republican 98% | Republican 99% |
| Oregon | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 94% | Democrat 97% |
| Rhode Island | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| South Carolina | Republican 52% | Republican 54% | Republican 53% |
| South Dakota | Republican 85% | Republican 79% | Republican 82% |
| Tennessee | Republican > 99% | Republican 98% | Republican 98% |
| Texas | Democrat 67% | Democrat 61% | Democrat 64% |
| Virginia | Democrat 94% | Democrat 88% | Democrat 91% |
| West Virginia | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| Wyoming | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
The closest races according to Orbit
| Race | Polls | Democratic chances · Orbit (quantum) | Democratic chances · Harfang (classical) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 39 | 51% | 49% |
| South Carolina | 17 | 46% | 48% |
| Alaska | 28 | 54% | 63% |
| Kansas | 20 | 57% | 68% |
| Texas | 81 | 61% | 67% |
| Maine | 57 | 62% | 71% |
| Michigan | 64 | 63% | 85% |
| Ohio | 47 | 63% | 71% |
| Louisiana | 4 | 37% | 11% |
| Mississippi | 4 | 35% | 33% |
| Minnesota | 23 | 67% | 91% |
| New Hampshire | 33 | 70% | 98% |
| Florida | 40 | 29% | 10% |
| Georgia | 28 | 77% | 95% |
| North Carolina | 52 | 82% | 95% |
Where the two engines disagree
- Iowa Orbit (quantum): D 51% Harfang (classical): D 49%
No past U.S. election has been replayed in Orbit yet: these numbers have no accuracy record.
Orbit’s instruments
Voters who switched sides since the last election
7.2 at least, in points of the electorateCone of possibilities until election day
± 0.6 points of maximum movement for a party at 50%Days to election
1 November 3, 2026How Orbit works, in three ideas
Opinion travels on a sphere
A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.
Polls are measurements
As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.
Qubits instead of dice
Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.