Mississippi

U.S. Senate · Mississippi

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 67% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 42%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 48.7%

Cindy Hyde-Smith, incumbent
Democrat 45.2%

Scott Colom
Other 6.0%

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 65% chance (67% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	67%
Orbit	Republican	65%
50/50 blend	Republican	66%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Mississippi	48.7%	45.2%	6.0%
National averageUnited States	48.3%+0.4	46.0%−0.8	5.7%+0.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Change Research Government that Works PAC	21–Oct 22, 2026	842	likely voters	Republican 43 Democrat 40 Independent and others 6	See the poll
Data For Progress Way to Lead PAC	5–Aug 15, 2026	1,018	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 38 Independent and others 7	See the poll
Impact Research SPLC Action Fund	8–Apr 12, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 42 Democrat 39 Independent and others 6	See the poll
Impact Research SPLC Action Fund	18–Jun 22, 2025	500	likely voters	Independent and others 46 Republican 38	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Cindy Hyde-Smith · Republican

Primary results

Held March 10, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Scott Colom	72.9%	109,817 votes
Republican primary	Cindy Hyde-Smith	80.8%	127,852 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Cindy Hyde-Smith
source
Democrat Challenger

Scott Colom
source
Other Challenger

Pinkins, Ty

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026