Riding profile

Mississippi

US Senate seat — MS · us sen ms

The question

Mississippi: can the Republicans hold this seat?

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
82%
Mean margin (pts)
8.8
P(close race)
33%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 53.4%
  • Democrat 46.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMississippi 53.4%46.2%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +4.4 46.7% −0.5 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Data For Progress Way to Lead PAC 5–Aug 15 1,018 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 41
link
Impact Research SPLC Action Fund 8–Apr 12 500 LV
Republican 42 Democrat 39
link
Impact Research SPLC Action Fund 18–Jun 22 500 LV
Republican 38
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Mississippi, a mixed riding in MS, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

HYDE-SMITH, CINDY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Pinkins, Ty

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026