Georgia

U.S. Senate · Georgia

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 17%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 54.9%

Jon Ossoff, incumbent
Republican 44.7%

Mike Collins

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 78% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	96%
Orbit	Democrat	78%
50/50 blend	Democrat	87%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Georgia	54.9%	44.7%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.0%+8.9	48.3%−3.6	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

26 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Echelon Insights NetChoice	16–Oct 23, 2026	508	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 40	See the poll
Activote	6–Oct 20, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 46	See the poll
Quantus Insights	15–Oct 17, 2026	755	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 45	See the poll
University Of Georgia Atlanta Journal-Constitution	7–Oct 15, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 40	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	7–Oct 9, 2026	1,101	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 43	See the poll
Big Data Poll Public Polling Project	21–Sep 23, 2026	678	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 45	See the poll
Insideradvantage	22–Sep 23, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 42	See the poll
Yougov	15–Sep 18, 2026	3,071	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 42	See the poll
Quantus Insights	14–Sep 16, 2026	645	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	10–Sep 12, 2026	1,091	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Insideradvantage James Magazine Online	16–Aug 17, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 43	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	13–Jul 16, 2026	1,060	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 43	See the poll
Wick	27–Jun 30, 2026	1,175	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 43	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	23–Jun 27, 2026	1,002	registered voters	Democrat 56 Republican 43	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	3–Apr 9, 2026	407	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 44	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	Feb 28, 2026 – Mar 2, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
Quantus Insights	9–Sep 12, 2025	624	registered voters	Democrat 38 Republican 38	See the poll
Tipp Insights League of American Workers	Jul 28, 2025 – Aug 1, 2025	2,395	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 44	See the poll
Cygnal Political	16–Jun 18, 2025	610	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 40	See the poll
Cygnal Political Democracy Defense Project	15–May 17, 2025	800	registered voters	Democrat 46 Republican 43	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	24–Apr 27, 2025	1,426	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
University Of Georgia Atlanta Journal-Constitution	15–Apr 24, 2025	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 38	See the poll
Cygnal Political	9–Mar 10, 2025	600	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 44	See the poll
Quantus Insights TrendingPolitics	11–Feb 13, 2025	800	registered voters	Republican 48 Democrat 45	See the poll
The Tyson Group	30–Jan 31, 2025	600	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 42	See the poll
Wpa Intelligence Club for Growth	14–Jan 15, 2025	500	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 34	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Jon Ossoff · Democrat

Primary results

Held June 16, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Jon Ossoff	100.0%	1,042,331 votes
Republican primary	Mike Collins	55.5%	390,174 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Jon Ossoff
source
Republican Challenger

Mike Collins
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Idaho Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026