Riding profile

Georgia

US Senate seat — GA · us sen ga

The question

Georgia: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Competitive

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
8.8
P(close race)
26%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.6%

    T. Jonathan Ossoff incumbent

  • Republican 45.2%

    Michael A Jr Collins

  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereGeorgia 53.6%45.2%1.2%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +7.0 48.9% −3.8 4.4% −3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

17 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Trafalgar Group 10–Sep 12 1,091 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 43
link
Insideradvantage James Magazine Online 16–Aug 17 800 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 43
link
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP 13–Jul 16 1,060 LV
Democrat 52 Republican 43
link
Wick 27–Jun 30 1,175 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 43
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News 23–Jun 27 1,002 RV
Democrat 56 Republican 43
link
Echelon Insights NetChoice 3–Apr 9 407 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 44
link
Emerson College Nexstar Feb 28 – Mar 2 1,000 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 43
link
Quantus Insights 9–Sep 12 624 RV
Democrat 38 Republican 38
link
Tipp Insights League of American Workers Jul 28 – Aug 1 2,395 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 44
link
Cygnal Political 16–Jun 18 610 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 40
link
Cygnal Political Democracy Defense Project 15–May 17 800 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 43
link
Trafalgar Group 24–Apr 27 1,426 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 43
link
University Of Georgia Atlanta Journal-Constitution 15–Apr 24 1,000 RV
Democrat 51 Republican 38
link
Cygnal Political 9–Mar 10 600 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 44
link
Quantus Insights TrendingPolitics 11–Feb 13 800 RV
Republican 48 Democrat 45
link
The Tyson Group 30–Jan 31 600 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 42
link
Wpa Intelligence Club for Growth 14–Jan 15 500 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 34
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Georgia, a mixed riding in GA, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 54% vote share, against 45% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

OSSOFF, T. JONATHAN

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 16, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Jon Ossoff (I) 100.0%

1,042,331 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Mike Collins 55.5%

390,174 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ossoff, T. Jonathan

  • Republican Challenger

    Collins, Michael A Jr

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026