Idaho

U.S. Senate · Idaho

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 20%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 48.3%

Jim Risch
Other 36.6%
Democrat 15.1%

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 93% chance (82% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	82%
Orbit	Republican	93%
50/50 blend	Republican	87%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Other	Democrat
Idaho	48.3%	36.6%	15.1%
National averageUnited States	48.3%	5.7%+30.9	46.0%−30.9

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

9 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Votenexus Knock Every Door PAC	21–Oct 22, 2026	700	likely voters	Republican 49 Independent and others 43	See the poll
Peak Insights	13–Oct 15, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 54 Independent and others 30	See the poll
Peak Insights	28–Sep 30, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 49 Independent and others 27	See the poll
Peak Insights	11–Aug 13, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 52 Independent and others 27	See the poll
The Bullfinch Group	4–Aug 7, 2026	608	likely voters	Independent and others 38 Republican 33	See the poll
Change Research	28–Jul 30, 2026	—	likely voters	Republican 43 Independent and others 22 Democrat 13	See the poll
Peak Insights	6–Jun 7, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 55 Democrat 15 Independent and others 12	See the poll
The Bullfinch Group	May 29, 2026 – Jun 1, 2026	774	registered voters	Republican 41 Independent and others 18 Democrat 15	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	16–Mar 17, 2026	639	registered voters	Republican 48 Independent and others 34	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Jim Risch · Other

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Official source

Republican primary	Jim Risch	67.3%	156,140 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Other Incumbent

Jim Risch

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Achilles, Todd Baker

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Jim Risch
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026