Riding profile

Idaho

US Senate seat — ID · us sen id

The question

Idaho: will Other lose this seat to Republican?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
17.6
P(close race)
12%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 49.3%
  • Other 31.6%
  • Democrat 19.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Other Democrat
HereIdaho 49.3%31.6%19.1%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +0.4 4.4% +27.2 46.7% −27.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Peak Insights 11–Aug 13 500 LV
Republican 52
link
The Bullfinch Group 4–Aug 7 608 LV
Republican 33
link
Change Research 28–Jul 30 — LV
Republican 42 Democrat 13
link
Peak Insights 6–Jun 7 500 LV
Republican 55 Democrat 15
link
The Bullfinch Group May 29 – Jun 1 774 RV
Republican 41 Democrat 15
link
Public Policy Polling 16–Mar 17 639 RV
Republican 48
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Idaho, a mixed riding in ID, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 49% vote share, against 32% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RISCH, JAMES E MR.

Sits with Other

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Incumbent

    Risch, James E Mr.

  • Other Challenger

    Achilles, Todd Baker

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026