Riding profile

Arkansas

US Senate seat — AR · us sen ar

The question

Arkansas: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.8%
  • Democrat 36.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereArkansas 62.8%36.8%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +13.8 46.7% −9.8 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
J.L. Partners 14–Aug 18 803 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 35
link
Hendrix College Talk Business & Politics 11–Aug 12 1,217 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 44
link
2040 Strategy Group 17–Jul 25 586 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 43
link
Grayhouse America One Policies 7–Feb 9 550 LV
Republican 58 Democrat 36
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Arkansas, a mixed riding in AR, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 63% vote share, against 37% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

COTTON, THOMAS

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Wadlin, Jeffrey Francis

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026