Riding profile

Arkansas

US Senate seat — AR · us sen ar

The question

Arkansas: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

Arkansas, a mixed riding in AR, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 23% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

COTTON, THOMAS

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Cotton, Thomas

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dunbar, Ethan N Sr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Shoffner, Hallie

  • Republican Challenger

    Ashby, Micah

  • Republican Challenger

    Little, Jeb

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.3%
  • Democrat 22.7%
  • Other 15.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereArkansas 62.3%22.7%15.0%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +13.5 48.3% −25.6 2.9% +12.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026