Colorado
U.S. Senate · Colorado
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 84% chance (97% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 97% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 84% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 91% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 57.5% | 40.2% | 2.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.0%+11.5 | 48.3%−8.1 | 5.7%−3.4 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
John Hickenlooper · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | John Hickenlooper | 52.8% | 472,870 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mark Baisley | 100.0% | 445,352 votes |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent John Hickenlooper
source - Other Challenger
Chew, Bob
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Challenger
Chew, Robert
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Challenger
Pond, Sean M.
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Republican Challenger Mark Baisley
source
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated