Riding profile

Colorado

US Senate seat — CO · us sen co

The question

Colorado: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
16.5
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.1%

    John W. Hickenlooper incumbent

  • Republican 40.6%

    Mark Baisley

  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereColorado 57.1%40.6%2.3%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +10.4 48.9% −8.3 4.4% −2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Colorado, a mixed riding in CO, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HICKENLOOPER, JOHN W.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 30, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

John Hickenlooper 52.8%

472,870 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Mark Baisley 100.0%

445,352 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Hickenlooper, John W.

  • Other Challenger

    Chew, Bob

  • Other Challenger

    Chew, Robert

  • Other Challenger

    Pond, Sean M.

  • Republican Challenger

    Baisley, Mark

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026