Iowa

U.S. Senate · Iowa

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.3 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 66%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 49.9%

Ashley Hinson
Democrat 49.7%

Josh Turek

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks a different favourite: the Democrat, with a 51% chance, while Harfang des neiges favours the Republican (52%).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	52%
Orbit	Democrat	51%
50/50 blend	Republican	50%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Iowa	49.9%	49.7%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	48.3%+1.6	46.0%+3.7	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

39 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 26, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	705	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 47	See the poll
Grayhouse	28–Oct 31, 2026	601	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 46	See the poll
Yougov	26–Oct 29, 2026	2,016	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 49	See the poll
Co/Efficient	October 28, 2026	1,020	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 46	See the poll
Echelon Insights	16–Oct 23, 2026	403	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 43	See the poll
Insideradvantage	21–Oct 22, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 46	See the poll
Co/Efficient	15–Oct 19, 2026	863	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 45	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	13–Oct 15, 2026	1,094	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 44	See the poll
New River Strategies/Gs Strategy Group Cook Political Report	9–Oct 13, 2026	602	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 44	See the poll
Yougov	6–Oct 12, 2026	2,245	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 46	See the poll
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	8–Oct 12, 2026	678	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 44	See the poll
Marist University	8–Oct 11, 2026	1,100	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 44	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	5–Oct 6, 2026	650	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 45	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	801	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 43	See the poll
Suffolk University	1–Oct 4, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	606	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 47	See the poll
Quantus Insights	28–Sep 29, 2026	738	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 47	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	24–Sep 28, 2026	1,204	registered voters	Democrat 49 Republican 47	See the poll
Insideradvantage	22–Sep 23, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 46	See the poll
Marist University	17–Sep 20, 2026	1,050	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 42	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	16–Sep 18, 2026	1,089	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 42	See the poll
Co/Efficient	14–Sep 16, 2026	831	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 42	See the poll
Cygnal Political Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation	9–Sep 11, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 43 Republican 43	See the poll
Yougov	3–Sep 8, 2026	2,041	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 43	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 1, 2026	750	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 45	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	27–Aug 31, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 42	See the poll
Abacus Data	26–Aug 28, 2026	323	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
Suffolk University	20–Aug 23, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 41	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	2–Aug 4, 2026	712	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 45	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Jun 27, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 46	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	23–Jun 27, 2026	1,003	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 46	See the poll
Cygnal Political Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation	16–Jun 19, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 44	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	8–Jun 11, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee	3–Jun 4, 2026	557	registered voters	Democrat 46 Republican 46	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	3–Apr 9, 2026	377	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Gbao ModSquad	10–Mar 16, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 43	See the poll
Change Research	8–Jan 11, 2026	1,108	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 41	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	18–Aug 19, 2025	572	registered voters	Republican 44 Democrat 43	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Senate Majority PAC	2–Jun 3, 2025	568	registered voters	Republican 45 Democrat 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Ernst, Joni K · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Josh Turek	62.7%	120,287 votes
Republican primary	Ashley Hinson	74.2%	153,059 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Josh Turek
source
Other Open seat

Laehn, Thomas Raymond Dr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Ashley Hinson
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026