Riding profile

Iowa

US Senate seat — IA · us sen ia

The question

Iowa: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
53%
Mean margin (pts)
2.7
P(close race)
86%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 49.9%

    Ashley Hinson

  • Democrat 49.7%

    Joshua Turek

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin
  3. MaineDemocrat68 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereIowa 49.9%49.7%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +1.0 46.7% +3.0 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

18 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Cygnal Political Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation 9–Sep 11 500 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 43
link
Yougov 3–Sep 8 2,041 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 43
link
Emerson College Nexstar Aug 31 – Sep 1 750 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 45
link
Global Strategy Group 27–Aug 31 800 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 42
link
Wedgewood Polls 27–Aug 29 600 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 48
link
Abacus Data 26–Aug 28 323 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 41
link
Suffolk University 20–Aug 23 500 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 41
link
Emerson College Nexstar 2–Aug 4 712 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 45
link
The New York Times/Siena University 15–Jun 27 600 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 46
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News 23–Jun 27 1,003 RV
Democrat 50 Republican 46
link
Cygnal Political Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation 16–Jun 19 600 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 44
link
Global Strategy Group 8–Jun 11 1,000 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 45
link
Public Policy Polling Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee 3–Jun 4 557 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 46
link
Echelon Insights NetChoice 3–Apr 9 377 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Gbao ModSquad 10–Mar 16 1,200 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 43
link
Change Research 8–Jan 11 1,108 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 41
link
Public Policy Polling 18–Aug 19 572 RV
Republican 44 Democrat 43
link
Public Policy Polling Senate Majority PAC 2–Jun 3 568 RV
Republican 45 Democrat 43
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Iowa, a mixed riding in IA, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

ERNST, JONI K

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Josh Turek 62.7%

120,287 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Ashley Hinson 74.2%

153,059 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Turek, Joshua

  • Other Open seat

    Laehn, Thomas Raymond Dr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Ashley Hinson

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026