Riding profile

Iowa

US Senate seat — IA · us sen ia

The question

Iowa: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Iowa, a mixed riding in IA, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

ERNST, JONI K

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Ernst, Joni K

  • Democrat Open seat

    Norris, Jackie

  • Democrat Open seat

    Sage, Nathan

  • Democrat Open seat

    Scholten, James

  • Democrat Open seat

    Turek, Joshua

  • Democrat Open seat

    Wahls, Zach P

  • Other Open seat

    Laehn, Thomas Raymond Dr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Arenholz, Ashley Hinson

  • Republican Open seat

    Carlin, James

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
56%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
95%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 49.6%
  • Republican 49.3%
  • Other 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereIowa 49.6%49.3%1.1%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +1.3 48.8% +0.5 2.9% −1.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026