Riding profile

South Carolina

US Senate seat — SC · us sen sc

The question

South Carolina: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

South Carolina, a mixed riding in SC, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

GRAHAM, LINDSEY O.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Graham, Lindsey O.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Andrews, Annie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Brown, Brandon

  • Democrat Challenger

    Freeman, Kyle Odonnell

  • Democrat Challenger

    Johnson, Lee

  • Other Challenger

    Whitener, Kasie Dr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Bauer, Andre

  • Republican Challenger

    Cowen, Calvin

  • Republican Challenger

    Dans, Paul

  • Republican Challenger

    Dismukes, Thomas Keith

  • Republican Challenger

    Herrmann, Patrick Joseph

  • Republican Challenger

    Lynch, Mark

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
86%
Mean margin (pts)
3.1
P(close race)
81%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.0%
  • Democrat 48.3%
  • Other 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereSouth Carolina 51.0%48.3%0.7%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +2.3 48.3% 2.9% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026