South Carolina

U.S. Senate · South Carolina

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.5 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 64%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.0%

Darline Graham
Democrat 49.6%

Annie Andrews

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 54% chance (53% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	53%
Orbit	Republican	54%
50/50 blend	Republican	53%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
South Carolina	50.0%	49.6%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	48.3%+1.7	46.0%+3.6	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

16 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Patinkin Research Strategies Voices of the Electorate PAC	27–Oct 29, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	19–Oct 26, 2026	707	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 48	See the poll
Targoz Market Research South Carolina Policy Council	16–Oct 25, 2026	895	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 46	See the poll
The Citadel Poll	14–Oct 25, 2026	1,009	registered voters	Democrat 40 Republican 37	See the poll
East Carolina University Center For Survey Research	19–Oct 24, 2026	955	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 47	See the poll
Impact Research Fresh Start SC PAC	15–Oct 21, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 44	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	16–Oct 18, 2026	1,095	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 46	See the poll
Insideradvantage	28–Sep 29, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 45	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	23–Sep 25, 2026	1,087	likely voters	Republican 43 Democrat 42	See the poll
Insideradvantage	8–Sep 9, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 43	See the poll
Abacus Data	26–Aug 28, 2026	306	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 38	See the poll
Impact Research	18–Aug 24, 2026	700	likely voters	Democrat 41 Republican 41	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	16–Jul 17, 2026	577	registered voters	Democrat 42 Republican 36	See the poll
Impact Research	17–Jun 22, 2026	700	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 45	See the poll
Impact Research	Feb 25, 2026 – Mar 1, 2026	700	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling 314 Action	21–Nov 22, 2025	704	registered voters	Republican 42 Democrat 36	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Darline Graham · Republican

Primary results

Held August 25, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Annie Andrews	100.0%
Republican primary	Darline Graham	52.5%	193,396 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Darline Graham

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Challenger

Annie Andrews
source
Other Challenger

Whitener, Kasie Dr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Darline Graham
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026