Riding profile

South Carolina

US Senate seat — SC · us sen sc

The question

South Carolina: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
75%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
54%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.6%

    Darline Graham

  • Democrat 48.0%

    Annie Andrews

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereSouth Carolina 51.6%48.0%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +2.7 46.7% +1.3 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

7 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Insideradvantage 8–Sep 9 1,200 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 43
link
Abacus Data 26–Aug 28 306 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 38
link
Impact Research 18–Aug 24 700 LV
Democrat 41 Republican 41
link
Public Policy Polling 16–Jul 17 577 RV
Democrat 42 Republican 36
link
Impact Research 17–Jun 22 700 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 45
link
Impact Research Feb 25 – Mar 1 700 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 42
link
Public Policy Polling 314 Action 21–Nov 22 704 RV
Republican 42 Democrat 36
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

South Carolina, a mixed riding in SC, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

GRAHAM, LINDSEY O.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 25, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Annie Andrews 100.0%

Republican primary

Winner

Darline Graham 52.5%

193,396 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Andrews, Annie

  • Other Challenger

    Whitener, Kasie Dr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Graham, Darline

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026