Riding profile

Kansas

US Senate seat — KS · us sen ks

The question

Kansas: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Kansas, a mixed riding in KS, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

MARSHALL, ROGER W

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Marshall, Roger W

  • Democrat Challenger

    Davis, Christy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hart, Jason

  • Democrat Challenger

    Murray, Erik

  • Democrat Challenger

    Parelkar, Lois Anne Elizabeth Lea

  • Democrat Challenger

    Schmidt, Patrick

  • Democrat Challenger

    Spidel Neumann, Sandy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Taylor, Noah

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
71%
Mean margin (pts)
7.3
P(close race)
41%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.0%
  • Democrat 46.5%
  • Other 2.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereKansas 51.0%46.5%2.5%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +2.2 48.3% −1.8 2.9% −0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026