Kansas

U.S. Senate · Kansas

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 64% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 62%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.8%

Adam Hamilton
Republican 48.8%

Roger Marshall, incumbent

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 56% chance (64% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	64%
Orbit	Democrat	56%
50/50 blend	Democrat	60%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Kansas	50.8%	48.8%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.0%+4.8	48.3%+0.5	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

19 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	736	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 44	See the poll
Yougov	26–Oct 29, 2026	2,086	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 49	See the poll
Emerson College	26–Oct 28, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 47	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	20–Oct 26, 2026	838	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School Of Policy And Government	22–Oct 26, 2026	801	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 44	See the poll
Insideradvantage	13–Oct 14, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 47	See the poll
Insideradvantage	9–Oct 10, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 47	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	2,253	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Gbao	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 41	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	1,095	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 44	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	22–Sep 30, 2026	605	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 45	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	15–Sep 16, 2026	750	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 43	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Democratic Attorneys General Association	13–Sep 16, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 43	See the poll
Co/Efficient	8–Sep 10, 2026	915	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 44	See the poll
Global Strategy Group People Over Politics Action Fund	12–Aug 16, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 43	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Senate Majority PAC	7–Aug 8, 2026	—	registered voters	Republican 46 Democrat 45	See the poll
Gbao	8–Jul 13, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 43	See the poll
Gqr	23–Apr 27, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 45	See the poll
Tavern Research	26–Jan 28, 2026	1,013	likely voters	Republican 54 Democrat 46	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Roger Marshall · Republican

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Adam Hamilton	34.6%	77,607 votes
Republican primary	Roger Marshall	79.9%	270,632 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Roger Marshall
source
Democrat Challenger

Adam Hamilton
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026