Riding profile

Kansas

US Senate seat — KS · us sen ks

The question

Kansas: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
55%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.1%
  • Democrat 47.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereKansas 52.1%47.5%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +3.2 46.7% +0.8 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Co/Efficient 8–Sep 10 915 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 44
link
Global Strategy Group People Over Politics Action Fund 12–Aug 16 800 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 43
link
Public Policy Polling Senate Majority PAC 7–Aug 8 — RV
Republican 46 Democrat 45
link
Gbao 8–Jul 13 600 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 43
link
Gqr 23–Apr 27 500 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 45
link
Tavern Research 26–Jan 28 1,013 LV
Republican 54 Democrat 46
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Kansas, a mixed riding in KS, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

MARSHALL, ROGER W

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Marshall, Roger W

  • Democrat Challenger

    Davis, Christy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hamilton, Adam

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hart, Jason

  • Democrat Challenger

    Latz, Kevin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Murray, Erik

  • Democrat Challenger

    Parelkar, Lois Anne Elizabeth Lea

  • Democrat Challenger

    Schmidt, Patrick

  • Democrat Challenger

    Spidel Neumann, Sandy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Taylor, Noah

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026