Riding profile

Alabama

US Senate seat — AL · us sen al

The question

Alabama: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

Alabama, a mixed riding in AL, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TUBERVILLE, THOMAS H

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Tuberville, Thomas H

  • Republican Challenger

    Hudson, Jared

  • Republican Challenger

    Marshall, Steven T

  • Democrat Open seat

    Larriett, Dakarai

  • Democrat Open seat

    Sweetser, Kyle

  • Democrat Open seat

    Wess, Everett W

  • Democrat Open seat

    Wheeler, Mark Shannon Mr II

  • Republican Open seat

    Burton, Matthew Seth

  • Republican Open seat

    Moore, Felix Barry

  • Republican Open seat

    Murphy, Morgan W. W.

  • Republican Open seat

    Walker, Rodney

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
12.5
P(close race)
12%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.0%
  • Democrat 43.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereAlabama 56.0%43.6%0.5%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +7.2 48.3% −4.8 2.9% −2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026