Alabama

U.S. Senate · Alabama

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 56.9%

Barry Moore
Democrat 42.8%

Everett Wess

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 94% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	98%
Orbit	Republican	94%
50/50 blend	Republican	96%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Alabama	56.9%	42.8%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	48.3%+8.6	46.0%−3.3	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Blueprint Polling	22–Oct 24, 2026	695	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 40	See the poll
Cygnal Political Alabama Daily News \| Gray Television	16–Oct 17, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 35	See the poll
The Alabama Poll	15–Oct 16, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 56 Democrat 35	See the poll
Rmg Research Alabama Policy Action \| Napolitan News Service	21–Sep 25, 2026	800	registered voters	Republican 54 Democrat 33	See the poll
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation.	8–Jul 11, 2026	601	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 32	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Tuberville, Thomas H · Republican

Primary results

Held June 16, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Everett Wess	54.6%	49,396 votes
Republican primary	Barry Moore · Advanced to a runoff	39.2%	189,067 votes
Republican primary	Jared Hudson · Advanced to a runoff	25.6%	123,672 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Everett Wess
source
Republican Open seat

Barry Moore
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive
Idaho Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026