Texas

U.S. Senate · Texas

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 67% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 62%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.9%

James Talarico
Republican 48.7%

Ken Paxton

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 61% chance (67% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	67%
Orbit	Democrat	61%
50/50 blend	Democrat	64%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Texas	50.9%	48.7%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.0%+4.9	48.3%+0.4	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

80 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	1,215	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 43	See the poll
Atlasintel	Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	1,678	adults	Democrat 51 Republican 45	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	Oct 31, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	1,089	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 48	See the poll
Kreate Strategies	27–Oct 30, 2026	900	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Yougov	26–Oct 29, 2026	2,138	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 47	See the poll
Activote	22–Oct 28, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 48	See the poll
Quantus Insights	26–Oct 28, 2026	1,207	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 48	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	20–Oct 27, 2026	923	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
A2 Insights	23–Oct 27, 2026	631	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 47	See the poll
Yougov Blue 254 Labs	21–Oct 26, 2026	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 43	See the poll
Data For Progress	23–Oct 26, 2026	712	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center	21–Oct 25, 2026	2,000	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 47	See the poll
Activote	17–Oct 21, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 49	See the poll
Yougov Univision	13–Oct 21, 2026	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
Verasight VoteHub	1–Oct 20, 2026	601	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	15–Oct 19, 2026	1,398	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 46	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	17–Oct 19, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 48	See the poll
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research	15–Oct 18, 2026	969	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 47	See the poll
Yougov CBS News	8–Oct 16, 2026	1,458	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 49	See the poll
Cor Strategies Heritage Action	10–Oct 15, 2026	1,409	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 40	See the poll
Activote	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 48	See the poll
Insideradvantage	13–Oct 14, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 48	See the poll
University Of Houston Hobby School Of Public Affairs	10–Oct 14, 2026	2,000	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
New River Strategies/Gs Strategy Group Cook Political Report	9–Oct 13, 2026	934	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 44	See the poll
Quantus Insights	9–Oct 11, 2026	854	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 47	See the poll
Marist University	8–Oct 11, 2026	1,196	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 45	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	6–Oct 8, 2026	1,086	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
Reconmr/Siena Research Institute	5–Oct 8, 2026	617	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	3,623	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 44	See the poll
Yougov University of Texas	Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	861	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 47	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	21–Sep 30, 2026	615	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 45	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	24–Sep 28, 2026	881	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 46	See the poll
Guidant Polling And Strategy Public First Action	20–Sep 28, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
University Of Massachusetts Lowell Center For Public Opinion/Yougov	18–Sep 28, 2026	850	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 45	See the poll
Pulse Decision Science	24–Sep 27, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 45	See the poll
Big Data Poll Public Polling Project	24–Sep 26, 2026	793	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 45	See the poll
Stratus Intelligence Texans for a Conservative Majority	22–Sep 24, 2026	865	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 48	See the poll
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research	19–Sep 22, 2026	1,007	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 44	See the poll
Marist University	17–Sep 20, 2026	1,139	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 44	See the poll
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center	15–Sep 19, 2026	1,800	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 46	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	15–Sep 17, 2026	1,079	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	12–Sep 14, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 46	See the poll
Reconmr/Siena Research Institute	8–Sep 11, 2026	614	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. Telemundo	8–Sep 10, 2026	625	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 43	See the poll
Insideradvantage	8–Sep 9, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 46	See the poll
Yougov Univision	Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 4, 2026	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	Aug 30, 2026 – Sep 1, 2026	895	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
Overton Insights Texas Public Policy Foundation	24–Aug 26, 2026	1,167	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 50	See the poll
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research	21–Aug 24, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 42	See the poll
Yougov University of Texas	5–Aug 13, 2026	1,200	registered voters	Democrat 42 Republican 39	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	9–Aug 10, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 46	See the poll
Yougov Blue 254 Labs	15–Jul 31, 2026	1,001	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center	27–Jul 30, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 45	See the poll
Reconmr/Siena Research Institute Texas A&M Bush School	27–Jul 30, 2026	619	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 43	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	23–Jul 27, 2026	1,006	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 48	See the poll
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research	15–Jul 17, 2026	1,048	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 40	See the poll
A2 Insights	23–Jun 28, 2026	618	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	19–Jun 27, 2026	656	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 47	See the poll
Yougov University of Texas	5–Jun 12, 2026	1,200	registered voters	Republican 43 Democrat 42	See the poll
Quantus Insights	3–Jun 4, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 43	See the poll
Reconmr/Siena Research Institute Texas A&M Bush School	1–Jun 4, 2026	807	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 46	See the poll
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research	27–May 28, 2026	1,670	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Lone Star Rising PAC	22–May 23, 2026	643	registered voters	Democrat 45 Republican 38	See the poll
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center	Apr 22, 2026 – May 6, 2026	1,223	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 45	See the poll
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research	17–Apr 20, 2026	1,018	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 41	See the poll
Yougov University of Texas	10–Apr 20, 2026	1,200	registered voters	Democrat 42 Republican 34	See the poll
Impact Research	12–Mar 17, 2026	900	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 43	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Senate Majority PAC	4–Mar 5, 2026	576	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 45	See the poll
Hart Research Associates Forward Texas	6–Feb 12, 2026	803	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
University Of Houston Hobby School Of Public Affairs	20–Jan 31, 2026	1,502	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 44	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	10–Jan 12, 2026	1,165	registered voters	Democrat 46 Republican 46	See the poll
Change Research Agave Social Welfare Fund	21–Nov 26, 2025	1,189	registered voters	Republican 50 Democrat 42	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners	12–Nov 17, 2025	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 44	See the poll
Cygnal Political Plymouth Union Public Advocacy	5–Oct 6, 2025	600	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 40	See the poll
University Of Houston Hobby School Of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School Of Public Affairs	Sep 19, 2025 – Oct 1, 2025	1,183	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 46	See the poll
University Of Texas At Tyler Center For Opinion Research	17–Sep 24, 2025	1,032	registered voters	Republican 38 Democrat 37	See the poll
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research	27–Aug 29, 2025	843	registered voters	Republican 48 Democrat 43	See the poll
Gbao	13–Aug 18, 2025	800	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 47	See the poll
Emerson College	11–Aug 12, 2025	1,000	registered voters	Republican 46 Democrat 41	See the poll
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center	9–May 19, 2025	1,200	registered voters	Republican 47 Democrat 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

John Cornyn · Republican

Primary results

Held May 26, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	James Talarico	52.4%	1,216,412 votes
Republican primary	Ken Paxton	63.8%	888,196 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

James Talarico
source
Other Challenger

Brown, Theodore E. Jr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Hall, Bradford Winston

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Simmons, Jade

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Sims, Daniel M

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Ken Paxton
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026