Riding profile

Texas

US Senate seat — TX · us sen tx

The question

Texas: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
66%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
79%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.5%

    James Talarico

  • Republican 49.1%

    Warren Kenneth Jr. Paxton

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. MaineDemocrat68 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereTexas 50.5%49.1%0.4%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +3.9 48.9% +0.1 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

40 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Socal Strategies 12–Sep 13 649 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 45
link
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. Telemundo 8–Sep 10 625 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 43
link
Insideradvantage 8–Sep 9 1,200 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 46
link
Yougov Univision Aug 27 – Sep 4 1,000 RV
Democrat 48 Republican 43
link
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP Aug 30 – Sep 1 895 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 44
link
Overton Insights Texas Public Policy Foundation 24–Aug 26 1,167 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 50
link
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research 21–Aug 24 1,000 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 42
link
Yougov University of Texas 5–Aug 13 1,200 RV
Democrat 42 Republican 39
link
Emerson College Nexstar 9–Aug 10 1,000 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 46
link
Wedgewood Polls 30–Jul 31 800 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
Yougov Blue 254 Labs 15–Jul 31 1,001 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 45
link
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center 27–Jul 30 1,200 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 45
link
Siena University ReconMR | Texas A&M Bush School 27–Jul 30 619 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 43
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News 23–Jul 27 1,006 RV
Democrat 51 Republican 48
link
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research 15–Jul 17 1,048 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 40
link
A2 Insights 23–Jun 28 618 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
The New York Times/Siena University 19–Jun 27 656 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 47
link
Socal Strategies Red Eagle Politics June 21, 2026 800 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 47
link
Yougov University of Texas 5–Jun 12 1,200 RV
Republican 43 Democrat 42
link
Quantus Insights 3–Jun 4 800 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 43
link
Siena University ReconMR | Texas A&M Bush School 1–Jun 4 807 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 46
link
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research 27–May 28 1,670 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 44
link
Public Policy Polling Lone Star Rising PAC 22–May 23 643 RV
Democrat 45 Republican 38
link
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center Apr 22 – May 6 1,223 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 45
link
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research 17–Apr 20 1,018 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 41
link
Yougov University of Texas 10–Apr 20 1,200 RV
Democrat 42 Republican 34
link
Impact Research 12–Mar 17 900 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 43
link
Public Policy Polling Senate Majority PAC 4–Mar 5 576 RV
Democrat 47 Republican 45
link
Hart Research Associates Forward Texas 6–Feb 12 803 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 45
link
University Of Houston Hobby School Of Public Affairs 20–Jan 31 1,502 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 44
link
Emerson College Nexstar 10–Jan 12 1,165 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 46
link
Change Research Agave Social Welfare Fund 21–Nov 26 1,189 RV
Republican 50 Democrat 42
link
Ragnar Research Partners 12–Nov 17 1,000 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 44
link
Cygnal Political Plymouth Union Public Advocacy 5–Oct 6 600 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 40
link
University Of Houston Hobby School Of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School Of Public Affairs Sep 19 – Oct 1 1,183 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 46
link
University Of Texas At Tyler Center For Opinion Research 17–Sep 24 1,032 RV
Republican 38 Democrat 37
link
Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research 27–Aug 29 843 RV
Republican 48 Democrat 43
link
Gbao 13–Aug 18 800 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 47
link
Emerson College 11–Aug 12 1,000 RV
Republican 46 Democrat 41
link
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center 9–May 19 1,200 RV
Republican 47 Democrat 44
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Texas, a mixed riding in TX, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

CORNYN, JOHN SEN

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 26, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

JAMES TALARICO 52.4%

1,216,412 votes

Republican primary

Winner

KEN PAXTON 63.8%

888,196 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Talarico, James

  • Other Challenger

    Brown, Theodore E. Jr.

  • Other Challenger

    Simmons, Jade

  • Other Challenger

    Sims, Daniel M

  • Republican Challenger

    Paxton, Warren Kenneth Jr.

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026