Riding profile

Texas

US Senate seat — TX · us sen tx

The question

Texas: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Texas, a mixed riding in TX, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

CORNYN, JOHN SEN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Cornyn, John Sen

  • Democrat Challenger

    Allred, Colin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Crockett, Jasmine

  • Democrat Challenger

    Swanson, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Talarico, James

  • Democrat Challenger

    Virts, Terry

  • Other Challenger

    Brown, Theodore E. Jr.

  • Other Challenger

    Sims, Daniel M

  • Republican Challenger

    Bender, Anna

  • Republican Challenger

    Bierschwale, Virgil

  • Republican Challenger

    Canady, Sara Larue

  • Republican Challenger

    Hunt, Wesley

  • Republican Challenger

    Khan, Gulrez

  • Republican Challenger

    Mcnabb, Barrett Anthony

  • Republican Challenger

    Paxton, Warren Kenneth Jr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
54%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
82%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 49.8%
  • Republican 49.5%
  • Other 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereTexas 49.8%49.5%0.8%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +1.5 48.8% +0.7 2.9% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026