Alaska

U.S. Senate · Alaska

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 63% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 62%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.7%

Mary Peltola
Republican 48.9%

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 55% chance (63% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	63%
Orbit	Democrat	55%
50/50 blend	Democrat	59%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Alaska	50.7%	48.9%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.0%+4.7	48.3%+0.6	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

27 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University	23–Oct 30, 2026	610	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	26–Oct 29, 2026	1,326	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 49	See the poll
Data For Progress	8–Oct 16, 2026	671	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 49	See the poll
Insideradvantage	9–Oct 10, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 48	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	1–Oct 3, 2026	1,512	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 49	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	504	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 43	See the poll
Quantus Insights	28–Sep 30, 2026	758	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 47	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	22–Sep 24, 2026	1,079	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 46	See the poll
Co/Efficient	14–Sep 17, 2026	799	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 46	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	10–Sep 12, 2026	1,352	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 48	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	8–Sep 11, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 47	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	20–Aug 23, 2026	1,495	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 49	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	2–Aug 5, 2026	1,371	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 49	See the poll
Data For Progress	Jul 28, 2026 – Aug 4, 2026	567	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 47	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Jun 29, 2026	593	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 45	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	4–Jun 7, 2026	1,393	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 49	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	14–May 17, 2026	1,401	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 48	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	16–Apr 19, 2026	1,946	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 50	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	19–Mar 22, 2026	1,340	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 48	See the poll
Public Policy Polling DSCC	16–Jan 17, 2026	611	registered voters	Democrat 49 Republican 47	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	8–Jan 11, 2026	1,681	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
The Tyson Group Plymouth Union Public Advocacy	11–Nov 13, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 43 Republican 39	See the poll
Data For Progress	17–Oct 23, 2025	823	registered voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	10–Oct 15, 2025	1,708	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	Jul 29, 2025 – Aug 1, 2025	1,613	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 43	See the poll
Data For Progress	21–Jul 27, 2025	678	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 45	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	21–Apr 25, 2023	1,261	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Sullivan, Dan · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Dan Sullivan
source
Democrat Challenger

Mary Peltola
source
Republican Challenger

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
source
Republican Challenger

Gerald Heikes
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive
Idaho Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026