Riding profile

Alaska

US Senate seat — AK · us sen ak

The question

Alaska: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
71%
Mean margin (pts)
2.3
P(close race)
92%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 50.5%
  • Democrat 49.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  2. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin
  3. MaineDemocrat68 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereAlaska 50.5%49.1%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +1.6 46.7% +2.4 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

16 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Alaska Survey Research 20–Aug 23 1,495 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 49
link
Alaska Survey Research 2–Aug 5 1,371 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 49
link
Data For Progress Jul 28 – Aug 4 567 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 49
link
The New York Times/Siena University 15–Jun 29 593 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 45
link
Alaska Survey Research 4–Jun 7 1,393 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 49
link
Alaska Survey Research 14–May 17 1,401 LV
Republican 52 Democrat 48
link
Alaska Survey Research 16–Apr 19 1,946 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 48
link
Alaska Survey Research 19–Mar 22 1,340 RV
Democrat 51 Republican 49
link
Public Policy Polling DSCC 16–Jan 17 611 RV
Democrat 49 Republican 47
link
Alaska Survey Research 8–Jan 11 1,681 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
The Tyson Group Plymouth Union Public Advocacy 11–Nov 13 600 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 39
link
Data For Progress 17–Oct 23 823 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Alaska Survey Research 10–Oct 15 1,708 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
Alaska Survey Research Jul 29 – Aug 1 1,613 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 43
link
Data For Progress 21–Jul 27 678 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 45
link
Alaska Survey Research 21–Apr 25 1,261 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Alaska, a mixed riding in AK, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

SULLIVAN, DAN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Sullivan, Dan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Peltola, Mary

  • Republican Challenger

    Sullivan, Daniel J

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026