Riding profile

Alaska

US Senate seat — AK · us sen ak

The question

Alaska: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Alaska, a mixed riding in AK, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

SULLIVAN, DAN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Sullivan, Dan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Peltola, Mary

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
83%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
82%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 50.7%
  • Democrat 48.1%
  • Other 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereAlaska 50.7%48.1%1.2%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +1.9 48.3% −0.2 2.9% −1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026