Byelection

Ohio

US Senate seat — OH · us sen oh

The question

Ohio: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Ohio, a mixed riding in OH, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

HUSTED, JON

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Husted, Jon

  • Democrat Challenger

    Brown, Sherrod

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kincaid, Ronald E Jr

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ode, Frederick J

  • Other Challenger

    Faris, Stephen I Mr

  • Other Challenger

    Levy, Gregory Lee

  • Other Challenger

    Redpath, William

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
61%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
71%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.4%
  • Republican 49.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOhio 50.4%49.2%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +2.1 48.8% +0.4 2.9% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026