Byelection

Ohio

US Senate seat — OH · us sen oh

The question

Ohio: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
76%
Mean margin (pts)
4.4
P(close race)
63%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.9%
  • Republican 47.8%
  • Other 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOhio 50.9%47.8%1.4%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +4.2 48.9% −1.2 4.4% −3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

20 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Yougov Bowling Green State University 1–Sep 10 1,000 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 45
link
Insideradvantage 8–Sep 9 1,200 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 42
link
Abacus Data 26–Aug 28 306 LV
Democrat 40 Republican 33
link
Wedgewood Polls 11–Aug 13 800 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 44
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News 6–Aug 10 1,008 RV
Democrat 53 Republican 45
link
Tulchin Research Jul 29 – Aug 4 600 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 43
link
The New York Times/Siena University 15–Jun 28 601 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 47
link
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP 14–Jun 16 800 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 45
link
Tulchin Research 2–Jun 4 600 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 42
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News May 28 – Jun 1 1,015 RV
Democrat 53 Republican 45
link
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov 7–Apr 14 1,000 RV
Republican 50 Democrat 47
link
Echelon Insights NetChoice 3–Apr 9 413 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 45
link
Quantus Insights 13–Mar 14 784 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 44
link
Onmessage Inc. Insurance Watchdog Coalition 3–Mar 8 600 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 45
link
Emc Research Ohio Environmental Council 10–Feb 22 1,343 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 47
link
Emerson College 6–Dec 8 850 RV
Republican 49 Democrat 46
link
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov 2–Oct 14 800 RV
Democrat 49 Republican 48
link
Emerson College 18–Aug 19 1,000 RV
Republican 50 Democrat 44
link
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov 18–Apr 24 800 RV
Republican 49 Democrat 46
link
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov 14–Feb 21 800 RV
Republican 47 Democrat 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Ohio, a mixed riding in OH, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

HUSTED, JON

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Faris, Stephen I Mr

  • Other Challenger

    Levy, Gregory Lee

  • Other Challenger

    Redpath, William

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026