Wyoming
U.S. Senate · Wyoming
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming | 68.9% | 28.4% | 2.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.3%+20.6 | 46.0%−17.6 | 5.7%−3.0 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Lummis, Cynthia Marie Mrs. · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | James Byrd | 79.3% | 9,589 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Harriet Hageman | 64.9% | 83,794 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated