Riding profile

Wyoming

US Senate seat — WY · us sen wy

The question

Wyoming: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 69.0%

    Harriet Hageman

  • Democrat 28.3%

    James Willard Byrd

  • Other 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereWyoming 69.0%28.3%2.7%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +20.0 46.7% −18.4 4.4% −1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Wyoming, a mixed riding in WY, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 69% vote share, against 28% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LUMMIS, CYNTHIA MARIE MRS.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

James Byrd 79.3%

9,589 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Harriet Hageman 64.9%

83,794 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Byrd, James Willard Mr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Hageman, Harriet

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026