Oregon
U.S. Senate · Oregon
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 94% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 94% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 60.9% | 35.3% | 3.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.0%+14.9 | 48.3%−13.0 | 5.7%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jeff Merkley · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jeff Merkley | 93.2% | 457,006 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | David Brock Smith | 29.5% | 107,953 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated