Riding profile

Oregon

US Senate seat — OR · us sen or

The question

Oregon: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.5%
  • Republican 35.8%
  • Other 3.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOregon 60.5%35.8%3.8%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +13.8 48.9% −13.2 4.4% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Oregon, a mixed riding in OR, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 36% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MERKLEY, JEFFREY ALAN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Merkley, Jeffrey Alan

  • Republican Challenger

    Perkins, Jo Rae

  • Republican Challenger

    Smith, David Brock

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026