Riding profile

Oregon

US Senate seat — OR · us sen or

The question

Oregon: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

Oregon, a mixed riding in OR, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 34% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MERKLEY, JEFFREY ALAN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Merkley, Jeffrey Alan

  • Republican Challenger

    Perkins, Jo Rae

  • Republican Challenger

    Smith, David Brock

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.3%
  • Republican 33.9%
  • Other 3.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOregon 62.3%33.9%3.8%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +14.0 48.8% −14.9 2.9% +0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026