Riding profile

Virginia

US Senate seat — VA · us sen va

The question

Virginia: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

Virginia, a mixed riding in VA, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

WARNER, MARK ROBERT

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Warner, Mark Robert

  • Democrat Challenger

    Daniels, Lorita Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Eichelberger, Gregory

  • Republican Challenger

    De Paula, Alex

  • Republican Challenger

    Farington, Kim

  • Republican Challenger

    Mizusawa, Bert K

  • Republican Challenger

    Reeves, Bryce

  • Republican Challenger

    Smith, C.L. Chuck Jr

  • Republican Challenger

    Williams, David Earl Mr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
14.7
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.1%
  • Republican 42.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereVirginia 57.1%42.4%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +8.8 48.8% −6.3 2.9% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026