Riding profile

Virginia

US Senate seat — VA · us sen va

The question

Virginia: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
12.9
P(close race)
9%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 56.2%
  • Republican 43.4%

    Bert K Mizusawa

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereVirginia 56.2%43.4%0.4%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +9.6 48.9% −5.6 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Responsive Management Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 18 – Jan 15 806 Adults
Democrat 45 Republican 38
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Virginia, a mixed riding in VA, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 56% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

WARNER, MARK ROBERT

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Republican primary

Winner

Bert Mizusawa 51.5%

124,271 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Challenger

    Mizusawa, Bert K

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026