Virginia
U.S. Senate · Virginia
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 14%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 88% chance (94% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 94% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 88% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 91% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 56.4% | 43.2% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.0%+10.4 | 48.3%−5.1 | 5.7%−5.3 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Mark Warner · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Mark Warner | Totals pending | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Bert Mizusawa | 51.5% | 124,271 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated