Riding profile

Michigan

US Senate seat — MI · us sen mi

The question

Michigan: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
78%
Mean margin (pts)
5.0
P(close race)
56%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.7%

    Abdul El-Sayed

  • Republican 47.9%

    Michael J Rogers

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMichigan 51.7%47.9%0.4%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +5.0 48.9% −1.0 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

32 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Trafalgar Group 7–Sep 9 1,079 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Cnn Ssrs Aug 31 – Sep 6 843 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 44
link
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit News | WDIV-TV Aug 31 – Sep 3 600 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 44
link
Epic-Mra 22–Aug 28 600 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 43
link
Abacus Data 26–Aug 28 332 LV
Democrat 41 Republican 35
link
Michigan State University Institute For Public Policy And Social Research/Yougov 10–Aug 20 779 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 45
link
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. 11–Aug 17 800 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 39
link
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP 9–Aug 11 877 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 47
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News 6–Aug 10 1,006 RV
Republican 51 Democrat 47
link
Gbao Senate Majority PAC 6–Aug 10 800 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 44
link
Tipp Insights League of American Workers 6–Aug 10 1,215 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 42
link
Epic-Mra MIRS News Service 24–Jul 31 600 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 43
link
Socal Strategies Red Eagle Politics 28–Jul 30 640 LV
Republican 42 Democrat 41
link
Mitchell Research & Communications 28–Jul 29 672 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 45
link
Glengariff Group, Inc. Business Leaders for Michigan | Michigan Education Association 22–Jul 24 600 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 39
link
Quantus Insights 29–Jun 30 947 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 44
link
Wedgewood Polls 25–Jun 28 602 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 44
link
Data For Progress Working Families Party PAC 15–Jun 22 709 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 46
link
Zenith Research Common Defense 11–Jun 14 602 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 42
link
Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service 11–Jun 13 827 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 42
link
Tulchin Research Fighting for Michigan PAC 2–Jun 4 500 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 41
link
Tipp Insights League of American Workers 20–May 23 1,163 LV
Democrat 40 Republican 40
link
Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service 1–May 7 606 LV
Republican 42 Democrat 41
link
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit Regional Chamber Apr 28 – May 1 600 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 40
link
Emerson College Nexstar 24–Jan 25 1,000 LV
Republican 43 Democrat 43
link
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit News | WDIV-TV 2–Jan 6 600 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 42
link
Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service 18–Nov 21 616 LV
Republican 41 Democrat 38
link
Epic-Mra ABC 12 6–Nov 11 600 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link
Rosetta Stone 23–Oct 25 637 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 31
link
Normington, Petts & Associates Yes Michigan 12–Jun 16 700 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 44
link
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit Regional Chamber 5–May 8 600 RV
Republican 47 Democrat 41
link
Target Insyght MIRS News Service 3–Mar 6 600 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 44
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Michigan, a mixed riding in MI, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

PETERS, GARY

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

El-Sayed, Abdul 48.5%

740,524 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Rogers, Mike 100.0%

879,934 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    El-Sayed, Abdul

  • Republican Open seat

    Rogers, Michael J

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026