Riding profile

Michigan

US Senate seat — MI · us sen mi

The question

Michigan: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Michigan, a mixed riding in MI, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

PETERS, GARY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Peters, Gary
Democrat Open seat

El-Sayed, Abdul
Democrat Open seat

Howard, Rachel Elizabeth
Democrat Open seat

Mcmorrow, Mallory
Democrat Open seat

Stevens, Haley
Democrat Open seat

Tate, Joseph Allen
Republican Open seat

Heurtebise, Frederick
Republican Open seat

Rogers, Michael J
Republican Open seat

Scott, Genevieve
Republican Open seat

Smith, Bernadette

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability: 76%
Mean margin (pts): 4.2
P(close race): 65%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 51.2%
Republican 48.2%
Other 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Democrat	Republican	Other
HereMichigan	51.2%	48.2%	0.6%
National averageUnited States	48.3% +2.8	48.8% −0.6	2.9% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 14, 2026
Cycle: us_senate_2026