New Hampshire

U.S. Senate · New Hampshire

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 10%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 55.9%

Chris Pappas
Republican 43.7%

John Sununu

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 70% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	98%
Orbit	Democrat	70%
50/50 blend	Democrat	84%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
New Hampshire	55.9%	43.7%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.0%+9.9	48.3%−4.6	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

32 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	2,035	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 42	See the poll
St Anselm	19–Oct 20, 2026	1,672	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 43	See the poll
Umass Lowell	2–Oct 19, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	8–Oct 12, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	1,519	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 43	See the poll
St Anselm AARP	28–Sep 29, 2026	1,042	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 44	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	26–Sep 27, 2026	1,082	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 41	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Sep 22, 2026	613	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	1,392	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 42	See the poll
Insideradvantage	16–Sep 17, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 40	See the poll
Co/Efficient	9–Sep 11, 2026	958	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 46	See the poll
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates National Republican Senatorial Committee	27–Aug 30, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 37 Democrat 36	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire 7News	20–Aug 24, 2026	1,846	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 43	See the poll
St Anselm	17–Aug 18, 2026	1,411	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
Peak Insights NRSC	24–Jun 27, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 43 Republican 42	See the poll
St Anselm	24–Jun 25, 2026	1,614	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 41	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	18–Jun 23, 2026	2,157	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Apr 21, 2026	1,130	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 42	See the poll
Emerson College	21–Mar 23, 2026	1,100	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 44	See the poll
St Anselm	16–Mar 18, 2026	1,491	registered voters	Democrat 46 Republican 43	See the poll
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation.	28–Jan 29, 2026	563	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 41	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	15–Jan 19, 2026	2,017	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
Praecones Analytica New Hampshire Journal	26–Dec 28, 2025	603	registered voters	Democrat 42 Republican 36	See the poll
Guidant Polling And Strategy One Nation	9–Dec 11, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
St Anselm	18–Nov 19, 2025	2,212	registered voters	Democrat 44 Republican 41	See the poll
Co/Efficient	9–Oct 13, 2025	1,034	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 42	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 23, 2025	1,213	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Co/Efficient	10–Sep 12, 2025	904	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 43	See the poll
1892 Polling One Nation	2–Sep 4, 2025	500	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 43	See the poll
St Anselm	26–Aug 27, 2025	1,776	registered voters	Democrat 48 Republican 30	See the poll
Quantus Insights TrendingPolitics	17–Mar 19, 2025	650	registered voters	Republican 53 Democrat 44	See the poll
Praecones Analytica New Hampshire Journal	Feb 26, 2025 – Mar 1, 2025	626	registered voters	Democrat 59 Republican 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Shaheen, Jeanne · Democrat

Primary results

Held September 8, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Chris Pappas	65.0%	100,088 votes
Republican primary	John Sununu	68.4%	75,839 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Chris Pappas
source
Republican Open seat

John Sununu
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026