Riding profile

New Hampshire

US Senate seat — NH · us sen nh

The question

New Hampshire: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

New Hampshire, a mixed riding in NH, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 55% vote share, against 44% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

SHAHEEN, JEANNE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Shaheen, Jeanne

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sullivan, Jared

  • Democrat Open seat

    Manzur, Karishma

  • Democrat Open seat

    Pappas, Chris

  • Republican Open seat

    Brown, Scott P.

  • Republican Open seat

    Innis, Dan

  • Republican Open seat

    Sununu, John E

Current forecast

Democrat

Competitive

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
11.2
P(close race)
16%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 55.2%
  • Republican 44.1%
  • Other 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNew Hampshire 55.2%44.1%0.7%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +6.8 48.8% −4.6 2.9% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026