Riding profile

New Hampshire

US Senate seat — NH · us sen nh

The question

New Hampshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
87%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
40%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 52.5%
  • Republican 46.5%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNew Hampshire 52.5%46.5%1.0%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +5.8 48.9% −2.5 4.4% −3.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

22 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Co/Efficient 9–Sep 11 958 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 46
link
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates National Republican Senatorial Committee 27–Aug 30 600 LV
Republican 37 Democrat 36
link
University Of New Hampshire 7News 20–Aug 24 1,846 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 43
link
St Anselm 17–Aug 18 1,411 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 41
link
Peak Insights NRSC 24–Jun 27 500 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 42
link
St Anselm 24–Jun 25 1,614 RV
Democrat 47 Republican 41
link
University Of New Hampshire 18–Jun 23 2,157 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 44
link
University Of New Hampshire 17–Apr 21 1,130 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 42
link
Emerson College 21–Mar 23 1,100 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 44
link
St Anselm 16–Mar 18 1,491 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 43
link
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation. 28–Jan 29 563 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 41
link
University Of New Hampshire 15–Jan 19 2,017 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 45
link
Praecones Analytica New Hampshire Journal 26–Dec 28 603 RV
Democrat 42 Republican 36
link
Guidant Polling And Strategy One Nation 9–Dec 11 600 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 44
link
St Anselm 18–Nov 19 2,212 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 41
link
Co/Efficient 9–Oct 13 1,034 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 42
link
University Of New Hampshire 17–Sep 23 1,213 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 43
link
Co/Efficient 10–Sep 12 904 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 43
link
1892 Polling One Nation 2–Sep 4 500 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 43
link
St Anselm 26–Aug 27 1,776 RV
Democrat 48 Republican 30
link
Quantus Insights TrendingPolitics 17–Mar 19 650 RV
Republican 53 Democrat 44
link
Praecones Analytica New Hampshire Journal Feb 26 – Mar 1 626 RV
Democrat 59 Republican 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

New Hampshire, a mixed riding in NH, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 46% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

SHAHEEN, JEANNE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Shaheen, Jeanne

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sullivan, Jared

  • Democrat Open seat

    Manzur, Karishma

  • Democrat Open seat

    Pappas, Chris

  • Republican Open seat

    Brown, Scott P.

  • Republican Open seat

    Innis, Dan

  • Republican Open seat

    Sununu, John E

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026