Riding profile

Rhode Island

US Senate seat — RI · us sen ri

The question

Rhode Island: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

Rhode Island, a mixed riding in RI, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

REED, JOHN F.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Reed, John F.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Burbridge, Connor

  • Republican Challenger

    Mckay, Raymond Tyler Mr

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.7%
  • Republican 34.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereRhode Island 64.7%34.8%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +16.4 48.8% −13.9 2.9% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026