Riding profile

Rhode Island

US Senate seat — RI · us sen ri

The question

Rhode Island: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.5%
  • Republican 34.9%
  • Other 3.6%

    Michael Bahry IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereRhode Island 61.5%34.9%3.6%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +14.9 48.9% −14.1 4.4% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
University Of New Hampshire 20–Aug 24 722 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 31
link
University Of New Hampshire 18–Jun 23 627 LV
Democrat 52 Republican 35
link
University Of New Hampshire 16–Apr 20 556 LV
Democrat 52 Republican 34
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Rhode Island, a mixed riding in RI, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

REED, JOHN F.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Bahry, Michael

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026