Rhode Island

U.S. Senate · Rhode Island

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 63.3%

Jack Reed, incumbent
Republican 32.0%

Raymond McKay
Other 4.7%

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	99%
50/50 blend	Democrat	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Rhode Island	63.3%	32.0%	4.7%
National averageUnited States	46.0%+17.3	48.3%−16.3	5.7%−1.0

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Emerson College WPRI-TV	8–Oct 11, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 59 Republican 25	See the poll
Embold Research Salve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy	5–Oct 8, 2026	815	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 32	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	595	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 33	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	20–Aug 24, 2026	722	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 31	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	18–Jun 23, 2026	627	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 35	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	16–Apr 20, 2026	556	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 34	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Jack Reed · Democrat

Primary results

Held September 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jack Reed	76.8%	98,473 votes
Republican primary	Raymond McKay	100.0%	20,354 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Jack Reed
source
Other Challenger

Bahry, Michael

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Raymond McKay
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026