Riding profile

Massachusetts

US Senate seat — MA · us sen ma

The question

Massachusetts: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

Massachusetts, a mixed riding in MA, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 63% vote share, against 36% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MARKEY, EDWARD SEN.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Markey, Edward Sen.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Moulton, Seth

  • Democrat Challenger

    Rikleen, Alexander

  • Other Challenger

    Ayyadurai, Shiva Dr

  • Other Challenger

    Dawicki, Morgan Gifford

  • Other Challenger

    Tache, Joseph

  • Republican Challenger

    Bech, Nathan Alexander

  • Republican Challenger

    Deaton, John

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 63.1%
  • Republican 36.0%
  • Other 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMassachusetts 63.1%36.0%0.9%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +14.8 48.8% −12.8 2.9% −2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026