Massachusetts

U.S. Senate · Massachusetts

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 63.2%

Edward J. Markey, incumbent
Republican 34.3%

John Deaton
Other 2.6%

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	> 99%
50/50 blend	Democrat	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Massachusetts	63.2%	34.3%	2.6%
National averageUnited States	46.0%+17.2	48.3%−14.0	5.7%−3.1

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

17 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	877	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 32	See the poll
Suffolk University Boston Globe	14–Oct 18, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 60 Republican 32	See the poll
Umass Lowell	7–Oct 18, 2026	850	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 26	See the poll
Yougov UMass Amherst \| WCVB-TV	5–Oct 12, 2026	800	registered voters	Democrat 56 Republican 29	See the poll
Massinc Polling Group Commonwealth Beacon	14–Sep 22, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 28	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	556	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 30	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire 7News	20–Aug 24, 2026	906	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 30	See the poll
Yougov UMass Amherst \| WCVB-TV	5–Aug 12, 2026	800	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 30	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	18–Jun 23, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 34	See the poll
Suffolk University Boston Globe	8–Jun 12, 2026	500	registered voters	Democrat 55 Republican 30	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	16–Apr 20, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 32	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	12–Feb 16, 2026	611	likely voters	Democrat 56 Republican 27	See the poll
Cygnal Political	22–Jan 25, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 30	See the poll
Suffolk University Boston Globe	19–Nov 23, 2025	500	registered voters	Democrat 54 Republican 31	See the poll
Surveyusa MA Responsible Alliance	Feb 28, 2025 – Mar 4, 2025	775	registered voters	Democrat 45 Republican 26	See the poll
Yougov UMass Amherst \| WCVB-TV	14–Feb 20, 2025	700	adults	Democrat 35 Republican 33	See the poll
Massinc Polling Group	Oct 29, 2024 – Nov 1, 2024	582	likely voters	Republican 40 Democrat 34	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Edward J. Markey · Democrat

Primary results

Held September 1, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Edward J. Markey	Totals pending
Republican primary	John Deaton	100.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Edward J. Markey
source
Other Challenger

Ayyadurai, Shiva Dr

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Dawicki, Morgan Gifford

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Tache, Joseph

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

John Deaton
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026