Riding profile

Massachusetts

US Senate seat — MA · us sen ma

The question

Massachusetts: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.8
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.7%

    Edward Sen. Markey incumbent

  • Republican 37.9%

    John Deaton

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMassachusetts 61.7%37.9%0.4%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +15.0 48.9% −11.0 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

11 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
University Of New Hampshire 7News 20–Aug 24 906 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 30
link
Yougov UMass Amherst | WCVB-TV 5–Aug 12 800 RV
Democrat 51 Republican 30
link
University Of New Hampshire 18–Jun 23 600 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 34
link
Suffolk University Boston Globe 8–Jun 12 500 RV
Democrat 55 Republican 30
link
University Of New Hampshire 16–Apr 20 600 LV
Democrat 55 Republican 32
link
University Of New Hampshire 12–Feb 16 611 LV
Democrat 56 Republican 27
link
Cygnal Political 22–Jan 25 800 LV
Democrat 54 Republican 30
link
Suffolk University Boston Globe 19–Nov 23 500 RV
Democrat 54 Republican 31
link
Surveyusa MA Responsible Alliance Feb 28 – Mar 4 775 RV
Democrat 45 Republican 26
link
Yougov UMass Amherst | WCVB-TV 14–Feb 20 700 Adults
Democrat 35 Republican 33
link
Massinc Polling Group Oct 29 – Nov 1 582 LV
Republican 40 Democrat 34
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Massachusetts, a mixed riding in MA, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MARKEY, EDWARD SEN.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Sep 1, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Edward J. Markey Totals pending

Republican primary

Winner

John Deaton 100.0%

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Markey, Edward Sen.

  • Other Challenger

    Ayyadurai, Shiva Dr

  • Other Challenger

    Dawicki, Morgan Gifford

  • Other Challenger

    Tache, Joseph

  • Republican Challenger

    Deaton, John

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026