Riding profile

New Mexico

US Senate seat — NM · us sen nm

The question

New Mexico: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
14.2
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 56.9%

    Ben Ray Lujan incumbent

  • Republican 42.7%

    Larry E Marker

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNew Mexico 56.9%42.7%0.4%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +10.2 48.9% −6.2 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal 21–Aug 28 516 LV
Democrat 53 Republican 38
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

New Mexico, a mixed riding in NM, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LUJAN, BEN RAY

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

BEN R LUJAN 84.2%

182,360 votes

Republican primary

Winner

LARRY E MARKER (write in) 100.0%

31,220 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Lujan, Ben Ray

  • Republican Challenger

    Marker, Larry E

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026