Riding profile

New Mexico

US Senate seat — NM · us sen nm

The question

New Mexico: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

New Mexico, a mixed riding in NM, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LUJAN, BEN RAY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Lujan, Ben Ray

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dodson, Matt

  • Republican Challenger

    Marker, Larry E

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
17.0
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.1%
  • Republican 40.2%
  • Other 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNew Mexico 57.1%40.2%2.6%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +8.8 48.8% −8.6 2.9% −0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026