New Mexico

U.S. Senate · New Mexico

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 57.1%

Ben R Lujan, incumbent
Republican 42.5%

Larry E Marker

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 92% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	98%
Orbit	Democrat	92%
50/50 blend	Democrat	95%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
New Mexico	57.1%	42.5%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.0%+11.1	48.3%−5.8	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal	1–Oct 9, 2026	1,125	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 37	See the poll
Surveyusa KOB-TV (Albuquerque)	25–Sep 30, 2026	567	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 36	See the poll
Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal	21–Aug 28, 2026	516	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 38	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Ben R Lujan · Democrat

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Ben R Lujan	84.2%	182,360 votes
Republican primary	LARRY E MARKER (write in)	100.0%	31,220 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Ben R Lujan
source
Republican Challenger

Larry E Marker
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026