Riding profile

Minnesota

US Senate seat — MN · us sen mn

The question

Minnesota: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

Minnesota, a mixed riding in MN, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 54% vote share, against 44% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SMITH, TINA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Smith, Tina

  • Democrat Open seat

    Craig, Angie

  • Democrat Open seat

    Lopez Franzen, Melisa

  • Other Open seat

    Flanagan, Margaret

  • Republican Open seat

    Hann, David W

  • Republican Open seat

    Schwarze, Adam

  • Republican Open seat

    Tafoya, Michele

  • Republican Open seat

    Weiler, Tom

  • Republican Open seat

    White, Royce

  • Republican Open seat

    York, Mark

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.5
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.9%
  • Republican 44.4%
  • Other 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMinnesota 53.9%44.4%1.7%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +5.6 48.8% −4.4 2.9% −1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026