Riding profile

Minnesota

US Senate seat — MN · us sen mn

The question

Minnesota: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
54%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.4%

    Peggy Flanagan

  • Republican 46.6%

    Michele Tafoya

  • Other 2.0%

    Margaret Flanagan DFL

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMinnesota 51.4%46.6%2.0%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +4.7 48.9% −2.3 4.4% −2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

9 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Co/Efficient 14–Sep 15 833 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 42
link
Quantus Insights 8–Sep 10 720 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 45
link
Tipp Insights League of American Workers Aug 31 – Sep 2 1,192 LV
Democrat 40 Republican 38
link
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis 13–Aug 17 661 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 41
link
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. KARE-TV | Minneapolis Star Tribune | U. of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication 8–Jun 10 800 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 41
link
Impact Research 26–May 28 808 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 44
link
Emerson College 6–Feb 8 1,000 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 41
link
Public Policy Polling GQR 15–Sep 16 1,015 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 44
link
Impact Research 8–Jul 11 604 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 45
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Minnesota, a mixed riding in MN, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

SMITH, TINA

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 11, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Peggy Flanagan 59.0%

411,853 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Michele Tafoya 52.1%

211,813 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Peggy Flanagan

  • Other Open seat

    Flanagan, Margaret

  • Republican Open seat

    Tafoya, Michele

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026