Minnesota

U.S. Senate · Minnesota

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 32%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.1%

Peggy Flanagan
Republican 45.8%

Michele Tafoya
Other 1.2%

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 67% chance (91% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	91%
Orbit	Democrat	67%
50/50 blend	Democrat	79%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Minnesota	53.1%	45.8%	1.2%
National averageUnited States	46.1%+7.0	48.3%−2.5	5.6%−4.5

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

23 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Research Co.	Oct 30, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	450	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
Survey 160	Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	1,365	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 42	See the poll
Insideradvantage	29–Oct 30, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 46	See the poll
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis	24–Oct 28, 2026	714	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	19–Oct 26, 2026	752	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 40	See the poll
Victory Insights	21–Oct 22, 2026	1,194	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	13–Oct 15, 2026	1,079	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis	9–Oct 12, 2026	718	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 42	See the poll
Morning Consult The Daily Agenda	2–Oct 7, 2026	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 45 Republican 41	See the poll
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. KARE 11 \| Minnesota Star Tribune	5–Oct 7, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 43	See the poll
Gqr Senate Majority PAC	1–Oct 4, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 42	See the poll
Big Data Poll Public Polling Project	29–Sep 30, 2026	622	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 44	See the poll
Insideradvantage	28–Sep 29, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Co/Efficient	14–Sep 15, 2026	833	likely voters	Democrat 43 Republican 42	See the poll
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis	9–Sep 14, 2026	654	likely voters	Democrat 42 Republican 42	See the poll
Quantus Insights	8–Sep 10, 2026	720	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
Tipp Insights League of American Workers	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 2, 2026	1,192	likely voters	Democrat 40 Republican 38	See the poll
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis	13–Aug 17, 2026	661	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 41	See the poll
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. KARE-TV \| Minnesota Star Tribune \| U. of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication	8–Jun 10, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 41	See the poll
Impact Research	26–May 28, 2026	808	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 44	See the poll
Emerson College	6–Feb 8, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 41	See the poll
Public Policy Polling GQR	15–Sep 16, 2025	1,015	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 44	See the poll
Impact Research	8–Jul 11, 2025	604	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Smith, Tina · Democrat

Primary results

Held August 11, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Peggy Flanagan	59.0%	411,853 votes
Republican primary	Michele Tafoya	52.1%	211,813 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Peggy Flanagan
source
Republican Open seat

Michele Tafoya
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026