Riding profile

Maine

US Senate seat — ME · us sen me

The question

Maine: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Maine, a mixed riding in ME, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 49% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

COLLINS, SUSAN M.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Collins, Susan M.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Costello, David

  • Democrat Challenger

    Favreau, Tucker

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kleban, Dan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Laflamme, Andrea

  • Democrat Challenger

    Loud, Paige

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mills, Janet Trafton

  • Democrat Challenger

    Platner, Graham

  • Democrat Challenger

    Rodriguez, Daira

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wood, Jordan

  • Other Challenger

    Evans, David Alan

  • Other Challenger

    Rench, Phillip

  • Republican Challenger

    Calabrese, Carmem Vincent Mr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Calabrese, Carmen Vincent Mr.

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
51%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
71%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 49.2%
  • Democrat 49.1%
  • Other 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMaine 49.2%49.1%1.7%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +0.4 48.3% +0.8 2.9% −1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026