Riding profile

Maine

US Senate seat — ME · us sen me

The question

Maine: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
68%
Mean margin (pts)
3.5
P(close race)
74%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.8%
  • Republican 48.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMaine 50.8%48.9%0.4%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +4.1 48.9% −0.1 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

34 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Yougov 2–Sep 8 1,335 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 44
link
Cnn Ssrs Aug 31 – Sep 6 880 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 45
link
Abacus Data 26–Aug 28 327 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 42
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News 6–Aug 10 1,000 RV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
Hart Research Associates Senate Majority PAC Jul 27 – Aug 1 802 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 45
link
University Of New Hampshire 15–Jul 20 1,178 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 46
link
Public Policy Polling July 7, 2026 785 RV
Republican 47 Democrat 42
link
Tavern Research 3–Jul 6 1,074 LV
Democrat 52 Republican 48
link
Wedgewood Polls 4–Jul 6 405 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 46
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News 23–Jun 27 1,003 RV
Republican 50 Democrat 47
link
The New York Times/Siena University Portland Press Herald 19–Jun 26 608 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 47
link
Wick 2Way 11–Jun 14 1,008 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 45
link
Quantus Insights 9–Jun 11 870 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Tavern Research 5–Jun 8 1,642 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 49
link
Public Policy Polling 2–Jun 3 670 RV
Democrat 49 Republican 45
link
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Pine Tree Results 1–Jun 3 800 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 46
link
University Of Massachusetts Lowell Center For Public Opinion/Yougov 13–May 26 650 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 43
link
University Of New Hampshire 21–May 25 1,250 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 42
link
Pan Atlantic Sms Group 8–May 18 827 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 41
link
Echelon Insights NetChoice 3–Apr 9 378 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 45
link
Maine People'S Resource Center 20–Mar 31 1,167 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 39
link
Emerson College 21–Mar 23 1,075 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 41
link
Onmessage Inc. Insurance Watchdog Coalition 3–Mar 8 600 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link
Quantus Insights 3–Mar 5 800 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 42
link
Pan Atlantic Sms Group Feb 13 – Mar 2 810 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 40
link
University Of New Hampshire 12–Feb 16 1,105 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 38
link
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Pine Tree Results 20–Jan 24 800 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 44
link
Workbench Strategy 11–Dec 16 900 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 50
link
Pan Atlantic Sms Group Nov 29 – Dec 7 820 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 42
link
Cygnal Political Plymouth Union Public Advocacy 10–Nov 11 600 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 41
link
Maine People'S Resource Center 26–Oct 29 783 RV
Democrat 45 Republican 41
link
Zenith Research More Perfect Union 7–Oct 10 501 LV
Democrat 38 Republican 38
link
Public Policy Polling 8–Sep 9 642 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 35
link
Upswing Research 21–Mar 25 600 LV
Republican 43 Democrat 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Maine, a mixed riding in ME, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

COLLINS, SUSAN M.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Evans, David Alan

  • Other Challenger

    Rench, Phillip

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026