Riding profile

Kentucky

US Senate seat — KY · us sen ky

The question

Kentucky: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

Kentucky, a mixed riding in KY, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

MCCONNELL, MITCH

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Mcconnell, Mitch

  • Democrat Open seat

    Booker, Charles

  • Democrat Open seat

    Forsythe, Logan

  • Democrat Open seat

    Mcgrath, Amy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Romans, Dale

  • Democrat Open seat

    Stevenson, Pamela

  • Democrat Open seat

    Willett, Joel

  • Republican Open seat

    Barr, Garland Andy

  • Republican Open seat

    Cameron, Daniel

  • Republican Open seat

    Faris, Michael

  • Republican Open seat

    Faris, Michael James

  • Republican Open seat

    Morris, Nate

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
10.6
P(close race)
18%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.5%
  • Democrat 44.1%
  • Other 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereKentucky 54.5%44.1%1.4%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +5.7 48.3% −4.2 2.9% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026