Kentucky
U.S. Senate · Kentucky
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 13%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 82% chance (94% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 94% |
| Orbit | Republican | 82% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 88% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 56.5% | 43.1% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.3%+8.2 | 46.0%−2.9 | 5.7%−5.3 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Mcconnell, Mitch · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Charles Booker | 46.8% | 155,577 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Andy Barr | 60.5% | 283,833 votes |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated