Riding profile

Kentucky

US Senate seat — KY · us sen ky

The question

Kentucky: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.3%
  • Democrat 43.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereKentucky 56.3%43.3%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +7.4 46.7% −3.4 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Global Strategy Group 24–Aug 27 600 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 40
link
Public Policy Polling 18–Dec 19 648 RV
Republican 49 Democrat 38
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Kentucky, a mixed riding in KY, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCCONNELL, MITCH

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Open seat

    Campbell, Christopher Todd

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026