Tennessee
U.S. Senate · Tennessee
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 98% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 58.5% | 36.5% | 5.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.3%+10.2 | 46.0%−9.5 | 5.7%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Bill Hagerty · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Marquita Bradshaw | 54.8% | 186,230 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Bill Hagerty | 100.0% | 629,194 votes |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Bill Hagerty
source - Other Challenger
Jones, Robert Thomas
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Challenger
Matthews, Yoshi D.
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Challenger
Sutman, David Jr
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Democrat Open seat Marquita Bradshaw
source
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated