Winner
Marquita Bradshaw 54.8%
Riding profile
Tennessee
The question
Tennessee: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereTennessee | 59.4% | 35.6% | 5.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.9% +10.4 | 46.7% −11.0 | 4.4% +0.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research Beacon Center | 15–Aug 26 | 607 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
Tennessee, a mixed riding in TN, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
HAGERTY, BILL
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 6, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Bill Hagerty 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Hagerty, Bill
- Other Challenger
Sutman, David Jr
-
Democrat Open seat Marquita Bradshaw
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_senate_2026