Riding profile

Tennessee

US Senate seat — TN · us sen tn

The question

Tennessee: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

Tennessee, a mixed riding in TN, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HAGERTY, BILL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Hagerty, Bill

  • Other Challenger

    Sutman, David Jr

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.0
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.2%
  • Democrat 39.2%
  • Other 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereTennessee 58.2%39.2%2.6%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +9.4 48.3% −9.1 2.9% −0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026