Riding profile

West Virginia

US Senate seat — WV · us sen wv

The question

West Virginia: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 68.1%
  • Democrat 29.2%
  • Other 2.7%

    Rio Phillips IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereWest Virginia 68.1%29.2%2.7%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +19.2 46.7% −17.5 4.4% −1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

West Virginia, a mixed riding in WV, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 68% vote share, against 29% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CAPITO, SHELLEY MOORE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Phillips, Rio

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026