Riding profile

West Virginia

US Senate seat — WV · us sen wv

The question

West Virginia: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

West Virginia, a mixed riding in WV, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 66% vote share, against 31% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CAPITO, SHELLEY MOORE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Capito, Shelley Moore

  • Democrat Challenger

    Fetty Anderson, Rachel Lee

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kessler, Jeffrey Vincent

  • Democrat Challenger

    Shrewsbury, Zachary C

  • Other Challenger

    Phillips, Rio

  • Republican Challenger

    Evans, Jonathan Derrick

  • Republican Challenger

    Willis, Thomas Edward II

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 66.2%
  • Democrat 31.1%
  • Other 2.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereWest Virginia 66.2%31.1%2.7%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +17.4 48.3% −17.2 2.9% −0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026