West Virginia
U.S. Senate · West Virginia
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 38.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | 67.7% | 29.6% | 2.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.3%+19.4 | 46.0%−16.4 | 5.7%−3.0 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Shelley Moore Capito · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Totals pending | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Shelley Moore Capito | Totals pending |
Republican 
Democrat Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated