Florida

U.S. Senate · Florida

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 30%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.6%

Ashley Moody, incumbent
Democrat 46.0%

Angie Nixon

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 71% chance (90% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	90%
Orbit	Republican	71%
50/50 blend	Republican	80%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Florida	53.6%	46.0%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	48.3%+5.3	46.0%	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

38 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Big Data Poll 1776 Law Center \| Public Polling Project	26–Oct 30, 2026	1,067	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 45	See the poll
Stetson University Center For Public Opinion Research	26–Oct 30, 2026	859	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 45	See the poll
Insideradvantage	28–Oct 29, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 43	See the poll
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	26–Oct 28, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 42 Democrat 36	See the poll
Activote	17–Oct 27, 2026	400	likely voters	Republican 53 Democrat 47	See the poll
St. Pete Polls Florida Politics	25–Oct 27, 2026	916	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 45	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	19–Oct 25, 2026	813	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 44	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	16–Oct 23, 2026	515	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 43	See the poll
Workbench Strategy	18–Oct 22, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 47	See the poll
Co/Efficient	18–Oct 20, 2026	1,014	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 40	See the poll
University Of North Florida	12–Oct 19, 2026	1,471	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 45	See the poll
Activote	Sep 27, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026	400	likely voters	Republican 53 Democrat 47	See the poll
Yougov Univision	2–Oct 15, 2026	825	registered voters	Republican 51 Democrat 42	See the poll
Mdw Communications EDGE Communications	4–Oct 10, 2026	2,351	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 42	See the poll
Stetson University Center For Public Opinion Research	1–Oct 9, 2026	716	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 41	See the poll
St. Pete Polls Florida Politics	5–Oct 7, 2026	836	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 45	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	3,812	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 44	See the poll
Targoz Market Research James Madison Institute	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	847	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 38	See the poll
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. NBC 6 Miami \| Telemundo	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	625	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 40	See the poll
Change Research Freedom Project USA	25–Sep 27, 2026	1,063	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 47	See the poll
Insideradvantage	20–Sep 21, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 42	See the poll
Stetson University Center For Public Opinion Research	14–Sep 21, 2026	830	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 40	See the poll
St. Pete Polls Florida Politics	15–Sep 17, 2026	913	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 45	See the poll
Quantus Insights	8–Sep 10, 2026	733	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 43	See the poll
Change Research Freedom Project USA	7–Sep 9, 2026	1,107	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 47	See the poll
University Of North Florida	8–Jul 17, 2026	848	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 42	See the poll
Change Research Freedom Project USA	11–Jun 14, 2026	1,015	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 42	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	18–May 21, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 43	See the poll
Change Research Freedom Project USA	13–May 16, 2026	2,070	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 45	See the poll
Cherry Communications Florida Chamber of Commerce	1–May 9, 2026	604	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 40	See the poll
Stetson University Center For Public Opinion Research	Mar 25, 2026 – Apr 13, 2026	414	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 38	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	3–Apr 9, 2026	406	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 43	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	2–Apr 3, 2026	574	registered voters	Republican 43 Democrat 40	See the poll
Mdw Communications EDGE Communications	Mar 27, 2026 – Apr 3, 2026	1,834	likely voters	Republican 43 Democrat 42	See the poll
Emerson College	29–Mar 31, 2026	1,125	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 36	See the poll
University Of North Florida	Feb 21, 2026 – Mar 2, 2026	768	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 38	See the poll
University Of North Florida Florida Watch	15–Oct 25, 2025	728	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 38	See the poll
The Tyson Group Plymouth Union Public Advocacy	1–Oct 3, 2025	800	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 37	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Ashley Moody · Republican

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Angie Nixon	56.1%	705,192 votes
Republican primary	Ashley Moody	79.6%	1,320,048 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Ashley Moody
source
Democrat Challenger

Angie Nixon

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Gilespie, Neil Joseph

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Open seat

Angie Nixon
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026