Byelection

Florida

US Senate seat — FL · us sen fl

The question

Florida: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
45%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.5%

    Ashley Moody incumbent

  • Democrat 47.1%

    Angie Nixon

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereFlorida 52.5%47.1%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +3.6 46.7% +0.4 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

15 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Quantus Insights 8–Sep 10 733 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 43
link
Change Research Freedom Project USA 7–Sep 9 1,107 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 47
link
University Of North Florida 8–Jul 17 848 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 40
link
Change Research Freedom Project USA 11–Jun 14 1,015 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 42
link
Global Strategy Group 18–May 21 1,000 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 43
link
Change Research Freedom Project USA 13–May 16 2,070 RV
Democrat 47 Republican 45
link
Cherry Communications Florida Chamber of Commerce 1–May 9 604 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 40
link
Stetson University Center For Public Opinion Research Mar 25 – Apr 13 414 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 42
link
Echelon Insights NetChoice 3–Apr 9 406 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 43
link
Public Policy Polling 2–Apr 3 574 RV
Republican 43 Democrat 40
link
Mdw Communications EDGE Communications Mar 27 – Apr 3 1,834 LV
Republican 43 Democrat 42
link
Emerson College 29–Mar 31 1,125 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 38
link
University Of North Florida Feb 21 – Mar 2 768 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 38
link
University Of North Florida Florida Watch 15–Oct 25 728 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 38
link
The Tyson Group Plymouth Union Public Advocacy 1–Oct 3 800 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 37
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Florida, a mixed riding in FL, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

MOODY, ASHLEY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Angie Nixon 56.1%

705,192 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Ashley Moody 79.6%

1,320,048 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Moody, Ashley

  • Other Challenger

    Gilespie, Neil Joseph

  • Democrat Open seat

    Angie Nixon

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026