Byelection

Florida

US Senate seat — FL · us sen fl

The question

Florida: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Florida, a mixed riding in FL, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

MOODY, ASHLEY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Moody, Ashley
Democrat Challenger

Atkins, Joey Mendoza
Democrat Challenger

Grayson, Alan Mark
Democrat Challenger

Jenkins, Jennifer
Democrat Challenger

Lyles, Tamika Ms
Democrat Challenger

Mujica, Hector Daniel
Democrat Challenger

Nixon, Angela
Democrat Challenger

Vindman, Alexander
Democrat Challenger

Weil, Joshua
Democrat Challenger

Weil, Joshua Joseph
Republican Challenger

Lang, Jake

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability: 84%
Mean margin (pts): 4.7
P(close race): 58%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.7%
Democrat 47.8%
Other 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Republican	Democrat	Other
HereFlorida	51.7%	47.8%	0.5%
National averageUnited States	48.8% +3.0	48.3% −0.6	2.9% −2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 14, 2026
Cycle: us_senate_2026