Oklahoma
U.S. Senate · Oklahoma
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 57.7% | 34.3% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.3%+9.4 | 46.0%−11.7 | 5.7%+2.3 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Mullin, Markwayne · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | 59.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Kevin Hern | 69.8% | 267,222 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated