Riding profile

Oklahoma

US Senate seat — OK · us sen ok

The question

Oklahoma: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.9%

    Kevin Hern

  • Democrat 34.1%

    N'Kiyla Jasmine - Ann Thomas

  • Other 8.0%

    Ron Meinhardt IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereOklahoma 57.9%34.1%8.0%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +9.0 46.7% −12.6 4.4% +3.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Cole Hargrave 3–Aug 6 500 RV
Republican 48 Democrat 27
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Oklahoma, a mixed riding in OK, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 34% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MULLIN, MARKWAYNE

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 25, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas 59.0%

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Thomas, N'Kiyla Jasmine - Ann

  • Other Challenger

    Meinhardt, Ron

  • Republican Challenger

    Hern, Kevin

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026