Riding profile

Oklahoma

US Senate seat — OK · us sen ok

The question

Oklahoma: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

Oklahoma, a mixed riding in OK, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 37% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MULLIN, MARKWAYNE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mullin, Markwayne
Democrat Challenger

Green, Troy Wesley
Democrat Challenger

Priest, Jim
Democrat Challenger

Thomas, N'Kiyla Jasmine - Ann
Democrat Challenger

Yen, Ervin Stone Dr
Other Challenger

Meinhardt, Ron
Republican Challenger

England, Gary Ty Mr.
Republican Challenger

Hern, Kevin
Republican Challenger

Inhofe, James M. Sen.
Republican Challenger

Ragain, Brian Matthew
Republican Challenger

Swearengin, Tammy

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 22.1
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 58.9%
Democrat 36.8%
Other 4.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Republican	Democrat	Other
HereOklahoma	58.9%	36.8%	4.3%
National averageUnited States	48.8% +10.1	48.3% −11.5	2.9% +1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 14, 2026
Cycle: us_senate_2026