Riding profile

Nebraska

US Senate seat — NE · us sen ne

The question

Nebraska: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
9.2
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.4%
  • Democrat 45.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNebraska 54.4%45.2%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.9% +5.5 46.7% −1.5 4.4% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Surveyusa Grant Forbes, LLC 8–Sep 13 503 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 42
link
Impact Research 9–Aug 13 600 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 47
link
Tavern Research Contours Inc. 8–May 11 1,165 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 42
link
Impact Research 2–Feb 5 600 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 47
link
Change Research Mar 28 – Apr 1 524 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 45
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Nebraska, a mixed riding in NE, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RICKETTS, PETE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Burbank, Cindy

  • Other Challenger

    Marvin, Mike

  • Other Challenger

    Osborn, Dan

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026