Nebraska

U.S. Senate · Nebraska

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 69% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.9 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 59%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.1%

Pete Ricketts, incumbent
Other 48.5%

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 52% chance (69% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	69%
Orbit	Republican	52%
50/50 blend	Republican	61%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Other	Democrat
Nebraska	51.1%	48.5%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	48.3%+2.8	5.7%+42.8	46.0%−45.6

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

19 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University	23–Oct 29, 2026	809	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 43	See the poll
Yougov	26–Oct 29, 2026	1,974	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 49	See the poll
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	25–Oct 29, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 45	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	16–Oct 23, 2026	407	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 46	See the poll
Gbao Working Class Majority PAC	18–Oct 22, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Impact Research	14–Oct 20, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 47	See the poll
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	15–Oct 18, 2026	598	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 47	See the poll
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy	15–Oct 18, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	2–Oct 5, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 46	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 3, 2026	1,808	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 47	See the poll
Co/Efficient	28–Sep 30, 2026	1,113	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 44	See the poll
Surveyusa Grant Forbes, LLC	8–Sep 13, 2026	503	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 42	See the poll
Gbao Working Class Majority PAC	3–Sep 8, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 46	See the poll
Impact Research	9–Aug 13, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 47	See the poll
Gbao Working Class Majority PAC	22–Jul 26, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 47	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc.	8–May 11, 2026	1,165	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 42	See the poll
Gbao Working Class Majority PAC	16–Apr 20, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Impact Research	2–Feb 5, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 47	See the poll
Change Research	Mar 28, 2025 – Apr 1, 2025	524	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 45	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Pete Ricketts · Republican

Primary results

Held May 12, 2026 · Official source

Republican primary	Pete Ricketts	81.5%	160,547 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Pete Ricketts
source
Other Challenger

Marvin, Mike

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Osborn, Dan

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026