Riding profile

North Carolina

US Senate seat — NC · us sen nc

The question

North Carolina: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

North Carolina, a mixed riding in NC, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 52% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

TILLIS, THOM R SEN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Tillis, Thom R Sen

  • Democrat Open seat

    Cooper, Roy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Nickel, Wiley

  • Democrat Open seat

    Williams, Marcus W.

  • Other Open seat

    Mcginnis, Brian

  • Republican Open seat

    Brown, Don

  • Republican Open seat

    Dupre, Margot

  • Republican Open seat

    Johnson, Thomas Lee

  • Republican Open seat

    Morrow, Michele

  • Republican Open seat

    Whatley, Michael

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
88%
Mean margin (pts)
6.4
P(close race)
42%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 52.4%
  • Republican 46.6%
  • Other 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNorth Carolina 52.4%46.6%1.1%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +4.1 48.8% −2.2 2.9% −1.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026