Winner
Roy Cooper 92.0%
Riding profile
North Carolina
The question
North Carolina: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?
Current forecast
Democrat
Competitive
- Probability
- 92%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.3
- P(close race)
- 34%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Carolina | 53.3% | 46.3% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.7% +6.6 | 48.9% −2.6 | 4.4% −4.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
32 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 8–Sep 10 | 1,084 | LV | link | |
| East Carolina University Center For Survey Research | Aug 31 – Sep 3 | 675 | LV | link | |
| Yougov Elon University | 21–Aug 31 | 800 | Adults | link | |
| High Point University | 3–Aug 12 | 800 | RV | link | |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal | 9–Aug 10 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Change Research Carolina Forward | 3–Aug 6 | 915 | LV | link | |
| Change Research Gary Pearce | Sam Hunt | Jul 29 – Aug 1 | 967 | RV | link | |
| Yougov Elon University | 23–Jul 31 | 466 | LV | link | |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News | 23–Jul 27 | 1,005 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 10–Jul 11 | 759 | RV | link | |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 15–Jun 27 | 601 | LV | link | |
| Yougov Catawba College Center for N.C. Politics & Public Service | 1–Jun 10 | 905 | LV | link | |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal | 10–May 11 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Change Research Carolina Forward | 4–May 8 | 957 | LV | link | |
| Opinion Diagnostics | 21–Apr 24 | 830 | RV | link | |
| High Point University | Mar 26 – Apr 6 | 800 | RV | link | |
| Quantus Insights | Mar 31 – Apr 1 | 987 | LV | link | |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal | 22–Mar 23 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Yougov Catawba College Center for N.C. Politics & Public Service | 9–Mar 18 | 872 | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 13–Mar 14 | 556 | RV | link | |
| Change Research Gary Pearce | Sam Hunt | Jan 31 – Feb 4 | 1,069 | RV | link | |
| Tipp Insights League of American Workers | 12–Jan 15 | 1,512 | RV | link | |
| Change Research Carolina Forward | 5–Jan 7 | 1,105 | LV | link | |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal | 9–Nov 10 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal | 14–Sep 15 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Change Research Carolina Forward | 2–Sep 8 | 855 | LV | link | |
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal | 11–Aug 12 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Emerson College | 28–Jul 30 | 1,000 | RV | link | |
| Victory Insights | 28–Jul 30 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Change Research Carolina Forward | Mar 31 – Apr 4 | 867 | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 4–Mar 5 | 662 | RV | link | |
| Victory Insights | 26–Nov 29 | 800 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
North Carolina, a mixed riding in NC, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 46% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
TILLIS, THOM R SEN
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Michael Whatley 64.6%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Open seat
Cooper, Roy
- Other Open seat
Mcginnis, Brian
-
Republican Open seat Whatley, Michael
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_senate_2026