Riding profile

South Dakota

US Senate seat — SD · us sen sd

The question

South Dakota: can the Republicans hold this seat?

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
62%
Mean margin (pts)
10.5
P(close race)
29%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 45.7%
  • Other 41.9%

    Brian Bengs IND

  • Democrat 12.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Other Democrat
HereSouth Dakota 45.7%41.9%12.3%
National averageUnited States 48.9% −3.2 4.4% +37.5 46.7% −34.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

7 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling 8–Sep 9 629 RV
Republican 45
link
Impact Research 13–Aug 17 500 LV
Republican 44
link
Public Opinion Strategies National Republican Senatorial Committee 6–Jul 9 500 LV
Republican 56
link
Public Policy Polling 29–May 30 726 RV
Republican 43 Democrat 18
link
Public Policy Polling 17–Feb 18 685 RV
Republican 49 Democrat 32
link
Public Policy Polling 13–Nov 14 814 RV
Republican 52 Democrat 30
link
Public Policy Polling 30–Jul 31 552 RV
Republican 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

South Dakota, a mixed riding in SD, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 46% vote share, against 42% for another party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

ROUNDS, MIKE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Bengs, Brian

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026