Riding profile

South Dakota

US Senate seat — SD · us sen sd

The question

South Dakota: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

South Dakota, a mixed riding in SD, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 33% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ROUNDS, MIKE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Rounds, Mike

  • Democrat Challenger

    Beaudion, Julian C

  • Other Challenger

    Bengs, Brian

  • Republican Challenger

    Mcneal, Justin S

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
19.7
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.9%
  • Democrat 33.3%
  • Other 13.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereSouth Dakota 52.9%33.3%13.8%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +4.2 48.3% −15.1 2.9% +10.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026