Louisiana

U.S. Senate · Louisiana

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.8%

Julia Letlow
Democrat 45.8%

Jamie Davis

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 63% chance (90% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	90%
Orbit	Republican	63%
50/50 blend	Republican	76%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Louisiana	53.8%	45.8%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	48.3%+5.5	46.0%−0.2	5.7%−5.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Lincoln Park Strategies Louisiana Democratic Party	29–Oct 31, 2026	—	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 47	See the poll
Hart Research Associates	28–Oct 29, 2026	502	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 45	See the poll
Hart Research Associates	17–Sep 19, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 44	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	21–Jul 22, 2026	518	registered voters	Republican 41 Democrat 37	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Bill Cassidy · Republican

Primary results

Held May 16, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jamie Davis	79.9%	156,789 votes
Republican primary	Julia Letlow	56.9%	180,002 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Jamie Davis
source
Republican Challenger

Julia Letlow
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026