Riding profile

Louisiana

US Senate seat — LA · us sen la

The question

Louisiana: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

Louisiana, a mixed riding in LA, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CASSIDY, WILLIAM M.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Cassidy, William M.
Democrat Challenger

Albares, Nicholas S.
Democrat Challenger

Crockett, Gary
Democrat Challenger

Davis, Jamie
Republican Challenger

Emerson, Julie Cathryn
Republican Challenger

Fleming, John C. Jr.
Republican Challenger

Holder, Christopher Lee Mr.
Republican Challenger

Letlow, Julia
Republican Challenger

Miguez, Blake
Republican Challenger

Seiden, Kathy W
Republican Challenger

Skrmetta, Eric
Republican Challenger

Spencer, Mark
Republican Challenger

Wyatt, Samuel Lee Mr.

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 17.8
P(close race): 3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 57.1%
Democrat 39.4%
Other 3.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Republican	Democrat	Other
HereLouisiana	57.1%	39.4%	3.5%
National averageUnited States	48.8% +8.4	48.3% −9.0	2.9% +0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 14, 2026
Cycle: us_senate_2026