New Jersey
U.S. Senate · New Jersey
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 93% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 93% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 96% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey | 61.2% | 37.0% | 1.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.0%+15.2 | 48.3%−11.3 | 5.7%−3.8 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Cory Booker · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Cory Booker | 100.0% | 587,980 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Justin Murphy | 33.4% | 82,272 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated