Riding profile

New Jersey

US Senate seat — NJ · us sen nj

The question

New Jersey: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

New Jersey, a mixed riding in NJ, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 63% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BOOKER, CORY A.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Booker, Cory A.

  • Other Challenger

    Estrada, Michael

  • Republican Challenger

    Lebovics, Robert

  • Republican Challenger

    Murphy, Justin Michael Ll.M.

  • Republican Challenger

    Tabor, Richard Jerome Sr

  • Republican Challenger

    Zdan, Alex

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.6%
  • Republican 35.5%
  • Other 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNew Jersey 62.6%35.5%1.9%
National averageUnited States 48.3% +14.3 48.8% −13.3 2.9% −1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026