Riding profile

New Jersey

US Senate seat — NJ · us sen nj

The question

New Jersey: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.8%
  • Republican 37.4%
  • Other 1.9%

    Michael Estrada IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNew Jersey 60.8%37.4%1.9%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +14.1 48.9% −11.6 4.4% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

New Jersey, a mixed riding in NJ, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 37% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BOOKER, CORY A.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Estrada, Michael

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026