Riding profile

Montana

US Senate seat — MT · us sen mt

The question

Montana: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
85%
Mean margin (pts)
10.2
P(close race)
27%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 42.9%
  • Democrat 31.5%
  • Other 25.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMontana 42.9%31.5%25.6%
National averageUnited States 48.9% −6.1 46.7% −15.2 4.4% +21.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

12 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Rutgers-Eagleton Montana Free Press Aug 27 – Sep 7 845 RV
Republican 38 Democrat 16
link
Peak Insights 23–Aug 25 600 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 19
link
Hart Research Associates Forward Montana 1–Aug 4 800 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 15
link
Gqr Contours Inc. 23–Jul 26 500 LV
Republican 52 Democrat 44
link
The Bullfinch Group Independent Center | Independent Leadership Council 13–Jul 16 793 LV
Republican 36 Democrat 22
link
Grayhouse 23–Jun 24 500 LV
Republican 41 Democrat 25
link
Hart Research Associates The Majority Institute 18–Jun 24 800 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 43
link
Public Opinion Strategies The Political Company 8–Jun 11 500 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 25
link
Tavern Research Contours Inc. 13–May 18 607 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 24
link
Change Research Independent Candidates Action 17–Mar 20 616 LV
Republican 37
link
American Pulse Research & Polling 14–Feb 18 607 LV
Republican 56
link
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation. 23–Jan 26 500 RV
Republican 43 Democrat 19
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Montana, a mixed riding in MT, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 43% vote share, against 31% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

DAINES, STEVE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Open seat

    Austin, Kyle

  • Other Open seat

    Bodnar, Seth

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026