Montana

U.S. Senate · Montana

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.2 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 44.5%

Kurt Alme
Democrat 38.6%

Alani Bankhead
Other 16.9%

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 94% chance (78% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	78%
Orbit	Republican	94%
50/50 blend	Republican	86%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Montana	44.5%	38.6%	16.9%
National averageUnited States	48.3%−3.8	46.0%−7.4	5.7%+11.2

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

20 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy	22–Oct 23, 2026	410	likely voters	Democrat 39 Republican 38 Independent and others 10	See the poll
Montana State University Billings	5–Oct 21, 2026	720	adults	Republican 30 Democrat 26 Independent and others 21	See the poll
Quantus Insights	15–Oct 18, 2026	667	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 29 Independent and others 21	See the poll
Peak Insights	7–Oct 12, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 29 Independent and others 12	See the poll
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy	6–Oct 8, 2026	405	likely voters	Democrat 37 Republican 35 Independent and others 13	See the poll
American Pulse Research & Polling NonStop Local	19–Sep 24, 2026	604	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 26 Independent and others 19	See the poll
Quantus Insights	14–Sep 15, 2026	625	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 26 Independent and others 24	See the poll
Aspect Strategic Montana Freedom PAC	7–Sep 15, 2026	715	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 32 Independent and others 14	See the poll
Rutgers-Eagleton Montana Free Press	Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 7, 2026	845	registered voters	Republican 38 Democrat 30 Independent and others 16	See the poll
Peak Insights	23–Aug 25, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 22 Independent and others 19	See the poll
Hart Research Associates Forward Montana	1–Aug 4, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 30 Independent and others 15	See the poll
Gqr Contours Inc.	23–Jul 26, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 41 Democrat 27 Independent and others 22	See the poll
The Bullfinch Group Independent Center \| Independent Leadership Council	13–Jul 16, 2026	793	likely voters	Republican 36 Democrat 24 Independent and others 22	See the poll
Grayhouse	23–Jun 24, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 41 Independent and others 25 Democrat 17	See the poll
Hart Research Associates The Majority Institute	18–Jun 24, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 25 Independent and others 22	See the poll
Public Opinion Strategies The Political Company	8–Jun 11, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 44 Independent and others 25 Democrat 20	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc.	13–May 18, 2026	607	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 26 Independent and others 24	See the poll
Change Research Independent Candidates Action	17–Mar 20, 2026	616	likely voters	Republican 37 Democrat 35	See the poll
American Pulse Research & Polling	14–Feb 18, 2026	607	likely voters	Republican 52 Independent and others 25 Democrat 16	See the poll
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation.	23–Jan 26, 2026	500	registered voters	Republican 43 Independent and others 19 Democrat 15	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Daines, Steve · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Alani Bankhead	43.6%	48,772 votes
Republican primary	Kurt Alme	76.1%	128,716 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Alani Bankhead
source
Other Open seat

Austin, Kyle

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Open seat

Bodnar, Seth

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Kurt Alme
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Democrat, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026