Riding profile

Montana

US Senate seat — MT · us sen mt

The question

Montana: can the Republicans hold this seat?

Editorial read

Montana, a mixed riding in MT, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

DAINES, STEVE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Daines, Steve

  • Republican Challenger

    Calhoun, Lee

  • Democrat Open seat

    Bankhead, Alani Ines

  • Democrat Open seat

    Blackwolf, Michael James Mr.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hummert, Michael

  • Democrat Open seat

    Neill, Reilly

  • Other Open seat

    Austin, Kyle

  • Other Open seat

    Bodnar, Seth

  • Republican Open seat

    Alme, Kurt

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
85%
Mean margin (pts)
9.4
P(close race)
29%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 50.8%
  • Democrat 42.7%
  • Other 6.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMontana 50.8%42.7%6.5%
National averageUnited States 48.8% +2.1 48.3% −5.6 2.9% +3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026