Riding profile

Illinois

US Senate seat — IL · us sen il

The question

Illinois: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.5%

    Juliana Stratton

  • Republican 35.3%

    Don Tracy

  • Other 6.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AlaskaRepublican71 %2.3 pt margin
  2. IowaRepublican53 %2.7 pt margin
  3. TexasDemocrat66 %3.2 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereIllinois 58.5%35.3%6.2%
National averageUnited States 46.7% +11.8 48.9% −13.7 4.4% +1.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Illinois, a mixed riding in IL, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DURBIN, RICHARD J.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

JULIANA STRATTON 40.4%

507,689 votes

Republican primary

Winner

DON TRACY 40.0%

215,523 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Stratton, Juliana

  • Other Open seat

    Harrington, Whitfield Mr Jr

  • Other Open seat

    Schwartzberg, Steven J

  • Republican Open seat

    Tracy, Don

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_senate_2026