Riding profile

Illinois

US Senate seat — IL · us sen il

The question

Illinois: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

Illinois, a mixed riding in IL, has no direct baseline for the current cycle. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DURBIN, RICHARD J.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Durbin, Richard J.
Democrat Open seat

Botsford, Steve
Democrat Open seat

Bustos, Awisi
Democrat Open seat

Dean, Jonathan
Democrat Open seat

Delgado, Adam
Democrat Open seat

Kelly, Robin
Democrat Open seat

Krishnamoorthi, S
Democrat Open seat

Maxwell, Bryan
Democrat Open seat

Ryan, Kevin
Democrat Open seat

Stratton, Juliana
Democrat Open seat

Swann, Christopher Alexander
Other Open seat

Harrington, Whitfield Mr Jr
Other Open seat

Schwartzberg, Steven J
Republican Open seat

Bennett, Douglas
Republican Open seat

Capparelli, R Cary
Republican Open seat

Chlebek, Casimer Mr.
Republican Open seat

Evans, Jeannie
Republican Open seat

Goodman, John
Republican Open seat

Long, Pamela
Republican Open seat

Tracy, Don

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 26.9
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 60.4%
Republican 33.5%
Other 6.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Democrat	Republican	Other
HereIllinois	60.4%	33.5%	6.2%
National averageUnited States	48.3% +12.0	48.8% −15.3	2.9% +3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 100 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 14, 2026
Cycle: us_senate_2026