Illinois
U.S. Senate · Illinois
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 91% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 91% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 95% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 58.2% | 41.4% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.0%+12.2 | 48.3%−6.9 | 5.7%−5.3 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
3 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Durbin, Richard J. · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Juliana Stratton | 40.4% | 507,689 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Don Tracy | 40.0% | 215,523 votes |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated