Vote-Scope Labs · Updated November 2, 2026

Orbit Live experiment

United Kingdom

Here is what Orbit, our experimental model, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.

Orbit’s favourite

Labour

97% chance of finishing first

Seats won

391Harfang 297 8 in 10 chance between 254 and 409

Chance of a majority (326)

56%Harfang 26% Labour

Same favourite as Harfang des neiges

82% of ridings

Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?

Same winner, different call on the majority

Orbit (quantum)

391

124

Harfang (classical)

297

128

Majority: 326

Labour
Conservative
Lib Dems
Reform UK
Other
Sinn Féin
SNP
Plaid Cymru
DUP
Green
SDLP
Alliance
UUP

Party by party

Labour +94 Harfang

391

Vote: 30.3%
Vote Harfang: 29.6%
Chance of a majority: 56%

Conservative −4 Harfang

124

Vote: 21.4%
Vote Harfang: 21.1%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Lib Dems −9 Harfang

Vote: 8.7%
Vote Harfang: 9.6%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Reform UK −41 Harfang

Vote: 20.7%
Vote Harfang: 21.6%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Other = Harfang

Vote: 5.7%
Vote Harfang: 5.6%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Sinn Féin = Harfang

Vote: 0.7%
Vote Harfang: 0.7%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

SNP −37 Harfang

Vote: 2.1%
Vote Harfang: 2.6%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Plaid Cymru −3 Harfang

Vote: 0.9%
Vote Harfang: 1.0%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

DUP = Harfang

Vote: 0.6%
Vote Harfang: 0.6%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Green = Harfang

Vote: 7.8%
Vote Harfang: 8.8%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

SDLP = Harfang

Vote: 0.3%
Vote Harfang: 0.3%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Alliance = Harfang

Vote: 0.4%
Vote Harfang: 0.4%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

UUP = Harfang

Vote: 0.3%
Vote Harfang: 0.3%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

The vote, with its margin of uncertainty

The solid bar is Orbit’s projected vote; the thin line, an 8-in-10 range; the black tick, our reference forecast.

Labour 30.3%
Conservative 21.4%
Reform UK 20.7%
Lib Dems 8.7%
Green 7.8%
Other 5.7%
SNP 2.1%

Where the two engines disagree

Aylesbury Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Bexleyheath and Crayford Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Orbit (quantum): Labour · 44% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Blackpool North and Fleetwood Orbit (quantum): Labour · 53% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 42% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Bracknell Orbit (quantum): Labour · 52% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Bradford South Orbit (quantum): Labour · 56% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Braintree Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 46% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Burnley Orbit (quantum): Labour · 52% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Burton and Uttoxeter Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Orbit (quantum): Labour · 46% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Chelsea and Fulham Orbit (quantum): Labour · 51% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Dartford Orbit (quantum): Labour · 45% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Derbyshire Dales Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Orbit (quantum): Labour · 49% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Dover and Deal Orbit (quantum): Labour · 59% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Earley and Woodley Orbit (quantum): Labour · 63% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Easington Orbit (quantum): Labour · 61% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Eastleigh Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 46% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 51% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
Forest of Dean Orbit (quantum): Labour · 43% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Gainsborough Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 45% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Gillingham and Rainham Orbit (quantum): Labour · 57% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Halesowen Orbit (quantum): Labour · 59% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Harlow Orbit (quantum): Labour · 49% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Hendon Orbit (quantum): Labour · 55% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Horsham Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 53% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
Hyndburn Orbit (quantum): Labour · 46% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Lichfield Orbit (quantum): Labour · 43% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Mansfield Orbit (quantum): Labour · 52% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Melksham and Devizes Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 51% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
Mid Derbyshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 55% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Mid Dorset and North Poole Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 56% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Orbit (quantum): Labour · 63% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Newbury Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 52% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
Newcastle-under-Lyme Orbit (quantum): Labour · 61% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Newton Abbot Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 38% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
North Durham Orbit (quantum): Labour · 59% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
North East Hampshire Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 66% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
North Somerset Orbit (quantum): Labour · 52% Harfang (classical): Conservative
North West Leicestershire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 40% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Nuneaton Orbit (quantum): Labour · 47% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Pendle and Clitheroe Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Peterborough Orbit (quantum): Labour · 46% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Plymouth Moor View Orbit (quantum): Labour · 61% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Poole Orbit (quantum): Labour · 44% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Portsmouth North Orbit (quantum): Labour · 44% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Reading West and Mid Berkshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 57% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Redditch Orbit (quantum): Labour · 42% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Ribble Valley Orbit (quantum): Labour · 52% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Rochester and Strood Orbit (quantum): Labour · 44% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Scunthorpe Orbit (quantum): Labour · 53% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Sherwood Forest Orbit (quantum): Labour · 55% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
South Dorset Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
South East Cornwall Orbit (quantum): Labour · 47% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
South Holland and The Deepings Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 51% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Spen Valley Orbit (quantum): Labour · 55% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
St Austell and Newquay Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Staffordshire Moorlands Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 38% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Stoke-on-Trent North Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Stoke-on-Trent South Orbit (quantum): Labour · 40% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Suffolk Coastal Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Sunderland Central Orbit (quantum): Labour · 60% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Thornbury and Yate Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 46% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
Uxbridge and South Ruislip Orbit (quantum): Labour · 52% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Walsall and Bloxwich Orbit (quantum): Labour · 55% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
East Renfrewshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 85% Harfang (classical): SNP
Midlothian Orbit (quantum): Labour · 82% Harfang (classical): SNP
North Ayrshire and Arran Orbit (quantum): Labour · 61% Harfang (classical): SNP
Aberdeen North Orbit (quantum): Labour · 49% Harfang (classical): SNP
Aberdeen South Orbit (quantum): SNP · 37% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 48% Harfang (classical): SNP
Airdrie and Shotts Orbit (quantum): Labour · 82% Harfang (classical): SNP
Alloa and Grangemouth Orbit (quantum): Labour · 78% Harfang (classical): SNP
Coatbridge and Bellshill Orbit (quantum): Labour · 75% Harfang (classical): SNP
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Orbit (quantum): Labour · 79% Harfang (classical): SNP
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Orbit (quantum): Labour · 58% Harfang (classical): SNP
Dumfries and Galloway Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 44% Harfang (classical): SNP
Dundee Central Orbit (quantum): Labour · 53% Harfang (classical): SNP
Dunfermline and Dollar Orbit (quantum): Labour · 85% Harfang (classical): SNP
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Orbit (quantum): Labour · 73% Harfang (classical): SNP
Edinburgh North and Leith Orbit (quantum): Labour · 86% Harfang (classical): SNP
Edinburgh South West Orbit (quantum): Labour · 85% Harfang (classical): SNP
Falkirk Orbit (quantum): Labour · 72% Harfang (classical): SNP
Glasgow East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 70% Harfang (classical): SNP
Glasgow North Orbit (quantum): Labour · 81% Harfang (classical): SNP
Glasgow North East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 80% Harfang (classical): SNP
Glasgow South Orbit (quantum): Labour · 66% Harfang (classical): SNP
Glasgow South West Orbit (quantum): Labour · 63% Harfang (classical): SNP
Glasgow West Orbit (quantum): Labour · 82% Harfang (classical): SNP
Glenrothes and Mid Fife Orbit (quantum): Labour · 58% Harfang (classical): SNP
Gordon and Buchan Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 60% Harfang (classical): SNP
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Orbit (quantum): Labour · 74% Harfang (classical): SNP
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Orbit (quantum): Lib Dems · 49% Harfang (classical): SNP
Livingston Orbit (quantum): Labour · 65% Harfang (classical): SNP
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 52% Harfang (classical): SNP
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Orbit (quantum): Labour · 77% Harfang (classical): SNP
Paisley and Renfrewshire North Orbit (quantum): Labour · 74% Harfang (classical): SNP
Paisley and Renfrewshire South Orbit (quantum): Labour · 77% Harfang (classical): SNP
Rutherglen Orbit (quantum): Labour · 84% Harfang (classical): SNP
Stirling and Strathallan Orbit (quantum): Labour · 56% Harfang (classical): SNP
West Dunbartonshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 73% Harfang (classical): SNP
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Orbit (quantum): Labour · 69% Harfang (classical): SNP
Central Ayrshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 83% Harfang (classical): SNP
Kilmarnock and Loudoun Orbit (quantum): Labour · 69% Harfang (classical): SNP
Alyn and Deeside Orbit (quantum): Labour · 64% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Bangor Aberconwy Orbit (quantum): Labour · 54% Harfang (classical): Plaid Cymru
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 38% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
Cardiff West Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Plaid Cymru
Clwyd East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 52% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Llanelli Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 51% Harfang (classical): Plaid Cymru
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Orbit (quantum): Labour · 55% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Monmouthshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Conservative
Neath and Swansea East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 54% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
Vale of Glamorgan Orbit (quantum): Labour · 56% Harfang (classical): Conservative

Orbit’s instruments

Voters who switched sides since the last election

10.8 at least, in points of the electorate

Average gap between pollsters

± 1.7 points, around the most likely state

Horizon

Election today No election date set: forecast if the election were held today, like our reference forecast.

How Orbit works, in three ideas

Opinion travels on a sphere

A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.

Polls are measurements

As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.

Qubits instead of dice

Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.

Read the full explanation