Vote-Scope Labs · Orbit · Updated November 2, 2026
French presidential election 2027, according to Orbit
For each candidate line-up with enough polling, Orbit tracks the first round on its sphere, opens the cone of possibilities to April 18, 2027, then plays the runoff with head-to-head polls or, failing that, vote transfers.
Chance of winning — "Le Pen · Attal · Glucksmann" line-up
Out of 100. The top bar is Orbit; the bottom one, our reference forecast.
They agree
- Le Pen
- Glucksmann
- Attal
Line-up · 24 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Attal · Glucksmann
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 34.6% | 20–44% | 36.0% | 93%ref. > 99% | > 99%ref. 95% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17.5% | 7–27% | 17.3% | 45%ref. 55% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14.4% | 6–23% | 14.4% | 29%ref. 32% | < 1%ref. 3% |
| Gabriel Attal | 11.1% | 4–19% | 11.2% | 17%ref. 11% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9.8% | 3–18% | 9.0% | 12%ref. 4% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.2% | 0–10% | 4.2% | 2%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.8% | 0–8% | 3.0% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.3% | 0–8% | 2.2% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.2% | 0–7% | 2.0% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5% | 0–4% | 0.7% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 40% of cases · runoff share 32.0% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- Raphaël Glucksmann – Marine Le Pen: 25% of cases · runoff share 44.2% ± 2.7 · runoff polls
- Gabriel Attal – Marine Le Pen: 14% of cases · runoff share 44.3% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
Line-up · 23 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Philippe · Glucksmann
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 34.3% | 20–44% | 35.2% | 92%ref. 98% | 95%ref. 92% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17.0% | 7–26% | 16.9% | 41%ref. 47% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Édouard Philippe | 15.4% | 6–24% | 15.8% | 33%ref. 35% | 4%ref. 7% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13.2% | 5–22% | 13.0% | 23%ref. 18% | < 1%ref. 2% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.7% | 2–15% | 7.1% | 7%ref. 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.1% | 0–10% | 4.1% | 2%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.8% | 0–8% | 2.9% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.3% | 0–8% | 2.3% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.1% | 0–7% | 2.0% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.6% | 0–4% | 0.7% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 36% of cases · runoff share 32.0% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- Édouard Philippe – Marine Le Pen: 28% of cases · runoff share 45.4% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- Raphaël Glucksmann – Marine Le Pen: 19% of cases · runoff share 44.2% ± 2.7 · runoff polls
Line-up · 22 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Philippe · Attal · Glucksmann
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 34.4% | 20–43% | 35.2% | 93%ref. 99% | 97%ref. 94% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16.3% | 7–25% | 16.8% | 43%ref. 57% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12.9% | 5–21% | 12.4% | 26%ref. 23% | < 1%ref. 2% |
| Édouard Philippe | 12.5% | 4–21% | 12.5% | 24%ref. 20% | 3%ref. 4% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6.6% | 1–14% | 6.4% | 6%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Gabriel Attal | 4.8% | 1–11% | 4.9% | 3%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.2% | 0–10% | 4.3% | 2%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.1% | 0–9% | 2.9% | 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.1% | 0–7% | 1.9% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.0% | 0–7% | 2.1% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.6% | 0–4% | 0.7% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 39% of cases · runoff share 32.0% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- Raphaël Glucksmann – Marine Le Pen: 22% of cases · runoff share 44.2% ± 2.7 · runoff polls
- Édouard Philippe – Marine Le Pen: 20% of cases · runoff share 45.4% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
Line-up · 9 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Philippe · Hollande
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 35.9% | 21–46% | 36.0% | 94%ref. 98% | 95%ref. 93% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16.7% | 7–26% | 17.3% | 42%ref. 49% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Édouard Philippe | 16.5% | 7–26% | 17.2% | 41%ref. 48% | 5%ref. 7% |
| François Hollande | 7.8% | 2–16% | 8.0% | 8%ref. 3% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.4% | 2–15% | 7.4% | 7%ref. 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.8% | 1–11% | 4.3% | 3%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.0% | 0–10% | 4.1% | 2%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.0% | 0–9% | 2.7% | 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.3% | 0–8% | 2.2% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.0% | 0–5% | 0.8% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 38% of cases · runoff share 32.0% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- Édouard Philippe – Marine Le Pen: 37% of cases · runoff share 45.4% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- François Hollande – Marine Le Pen: 7% of cases · runoff share 43.6% ± 2.9 · runoff polls
Line-up · 6 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Attal · Hollande
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 36.7% | 21–46% | 38.0% | 95%ref. > 99% | > 99%ref. 98% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18.6% | 8–28% | 17.9% | 54%ref. 69% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Gabriel Attal | 12.2% | 4–21% | 11.8% | 21%ref. 19% | < 1%ref. 1% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9.9% | 3–18% | 9.2% | 15%ref. 6% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| François Hollande | 7.1% | 1–15% | 8.2% | 7%ref. 6% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 5.0% | 1–12% | 4.5% | 3%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.9% | 1–12% | 4.9% | 3%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.1% | 0–7% | 2.5% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.0% | 0–7% | 2.3% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.0% | 0–5% | 0.8% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 50% of cases · runoff share 32.0% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- Gabriel Attal – Marine Le Pen: 19% of cases · runoff share 44.3% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- Bruno Retailleau – Marine Le Pen: 13% of cases · runoff share 42.0% ± 3.9 · runoff polls
Line-up · 5 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Philippe · Villepin · Glucksmann
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 31.2% | 17–41% | 34.5% | 87%ref. 98% | 93%ref. 92% |
| Édouard Philippe | 16.9% | 7–26% | 14.7% | 39%ref. 30% | 6%ref. 6% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15.8% | 6–25% | 17.0% | 35%ref. 51% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14.6% | 5–23% | 13.0% | 29%ref. 21% | < 1%ref. 2% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.1% | 1–15% | 6.6% | 6%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.6% | 0–10% | 4.3% | 2%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.7% | 0–8% | 2.2% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.7% | 0–8% | 2.8% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2.3% | 0–8% | 2.1% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 1.5% | 0–6% | 1.9% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.0% | 0–5% | 0.9% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Édouard Philippe – Marine Le Pen: 31% of cases · runoff share 45.4% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 27% of cases · runoff share 32.0% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- Raphaël Glucksmann – Marine Le Pen: 22% of cases · runoff share 44.2% ± 2.7 · runoff polls
Line-up · 5 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Villepin · Attal · Glucksmann
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 32.5% | 18–42% | 35.1% | 90%ref. 99% | > 99%ref. 95% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16.8% | 7–26% | 17.1% | 42%ref. 58% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15.2% | 6–24% | 13.9% | 34%ref. 32% | < 1%ref. 3% |
| Gabriel Attal | 11.1% | 3–19% | 9.7% | 17%ref. 7% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9.3% | 2–17% | 8.9% | 11%ref. 4% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.6% | 0–10% | 4.6% | 2%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3.3% | 0–9% | 2.9% | 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5% | 0–8% | 2.1% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.4% | 0–8% | 2.8% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 1.9% | 0–7% | 2.0% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.9% | 0–5% | 0.9% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 35% of cases · runoff share 32.0% ± 2.6 · runoff polls
- Raphaël Glucksmann – Marine Le Pen: 28% of cases · runoff share 44.2% ± 2.7 · runoff polls
- Gabriel Attal – Marine Le Pen: 13% of cases · runoff share 44.3% ± 2.6 · runoff polls