Vote-Scope Labs · Updated November 2, 2026

Orbit Live experiment

French legislative election

Here is what Orbit, our experimental model, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.

Orbit’s favourite

RN and allies

73% chance of finishing first

Seats won

301Harfang 283 8 in 10 chance between 182 and 379

Chance of a majority (289)

50%Harfang 45% RN and allies

Same favourite as Harfang des neiges

— of ridings

Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?

Same winner, different call on the majority

Orbit (quantum)

301

209

Harfang (classical)

283

161

Majority: 289

RN and allies
Left (NFP)
LR and allies
Others
Centre (Ensemble)
GREENS
Sovereignists

Party by party

RN and allies +18 Harfang

301

Vote: 39.0%
Vote Harfang: —
Chance of a majority: 50%

Left (NFP) +48 Harfang

209

Vote: 31.0%
Vote Harfang: —
Chance of a majority: 13%

LR and allies −6 Harfang

Vote: 11.8%
Vote Harfang: —
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Others +3 Harfang

Vote: 4.3%
Vote Harfang: —
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Centre (Ensemble) −55 Harfang

Vote: 12.9%
Vote Harfang: —
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Sovereignists −1 Harfang

Vote: 0.2%
Vote Harfang: —
Chance of a majority: < 1%

GREENS −1 Harfang

Vote: 0.0%
Vote Harfang: —
Chance of a majority: < 1%

The vote, with its margin of uncertainty

The solid bar is Orbit’s projected vote; the thin line, an 8-in-10 range; the black tick, our reference forecast.

RN and allies 39.0%
Left (NFP) 31.0%
Centre (Ensemble) 12.9%
LR and allies 11.8%
Others 4.3%

Where the two engines disagree

Both engines name the same favourite everywhere.

Orbit’s instruments

Voters who switched sides since the last election

— at least, in points of the electorate

Horizon

Election today No election date set: forecast if the election were held today, like our reference forecast.

How Orbit works, in three ideas

Opinion travels on a sphere

A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.

Polls are measurements

As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.

Qubits instead of dice

Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.

Read the full explanation