Vote-Scope Labs · Updated October 4, 2026

Orbit Live experiment

Quebec 2026

Here is what Orbit, our experimental model, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.

Orbit’s favourite

Parti Quebecois

91% chance of finishing first

Seats won

68Harfang 62 8 in 10 chance between 45 and 73

Chance of a majority (64)

37%Harfang 29% Parti Quebecois

Same favourite as Harfang des neiges

92% of ridings

Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?

Same winner, different call on the majority

Orbit (quantum)

Harfang (classical)

50/50 blend

Majority: 64

Parti Quebecois
QLP
Conservatives of Quebec
Quebec Solidaire
CAQ

What if we listened to both engines at once?

50/50 blend: Parti Quebecois 65 · Chance of a majority33%

The blend gives each riding the average of the chances announced by Orbit and by our reference forecast, then counts the favourites. In our Quebec replays (2018 and 2022, the day before the vote), the blend always beat the reference forecast alone: in 2018 the error drops from 6.5 to 4.5 seats, and the announced probabilities become far more reliable. The 50/50 split is a choice of principle, not a setting tuned on those two elections. Its first real blind test came in Quebec on October 5: the blend picked the right winner in 114 of 127 ridings, against 110 for the reference forecast and 113 for Orbit, and its probabilities were the best calibrated of the three. One election is not enough to conclude: British Columbia is its second test.

The election, drawn on a real quantum computer

Each contested riding becomes one or two qubits, tuned so that measuring them returns each party with exactly its chance according to Orbit. Every measurement of the circuit is a complete election. We repeated the experiment thousands of times, across 256 provincial scenarios.

Machine:: ibm_fez
Draw:: October 5 at 12:10 AM EDT
Elections drawn:: 65,536
Qubits per circuit:: 60
Machine time:: 80 s

Parti Quebecois seats: what the machine drew

Raw draw from the machine
After readout-error correction
Orbit’s exact calculation

Average seats by party

Party	Exact	Machine, raw	Machine, corrected
Parti Quebecois	59.8	58.8	59.2
QLP	37.4	37.1	37.1
Conservatives of Quebec	17.0	17.3	17.3
Quebec Solidaire	7.9	7.9	8.0
CAQ	4.8	5.8	5.4
Chance of a majority: Parti Quebecois	37%	32%	34%

Every draw of the night

PQ average seats: Orbit’s exact calculation, raw machine, corrected machine; then chance of a majority (exact → raw → corrected). The first two draws were made before the final Forum poll; each row’s exact calculation is Orbit’s at that time. “Twirling”: each circuit is replayed under random wrappers that turn the chip’s systematic errors into noise that averages out.

Draw	Elections	Exact	Machine, raw	Machine, corrected	Chance of a majority
marrakesh · 09:55 PM	16,384	61.3	59.0	59.5	42% → 33% → 34%
fez · 10:07 PM	16,384	61.3	59.6	60.0	42% → 35% → 37%
fez · 12:10 AM	65,536	59.8	58.8	59.2	37% → 32% → 34%
fez · 02:01 AM · twirling	65,536	59.8	58.7	59.3	37% → 31% → 34%

All 127 ridings, one by one

For each riding: the favourite’s chance according to Orbit’s exact calculation, and how often the machine made it win. Safe ridings (0 qubits) skip the machine: the same party wins in every scenario.

Riding	Qubits	Favourite	Exact	Machine	Other outcomes drawn
Abitibi-Est	2	Parti Quebecois	47%	48%	QLP 40% · Conservatives of Quebec 9% · CAQ 4%
Abitibi-Ouest	2	Parti Quebecois	96%	94%	Conservatives of Quebec 3% · CAQ 2% · QLP < 1%
Acadie	2	QLP	98%	91%	Conservatives of Quebec 8% · Parti Quebecois 1% · Quebec Solidaire < 1%
Anjou-Louis-Riel	2	QLP	93%	91%	Parti Quebecois 8% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% · Quebec Solidaire < 1%
Argenteuil	2	Parti Quebecois	75%	71%	QLP 22% · Conservatives of Quebec 4% · CAQ 3%
Arthabaska-L’Érable	2	Conservatives of Quebec	73%	71%	Parti Quebecois 22% · CAQ 6% · QLP < 1%
Beauce-Nord	2	Conservatives of Quebec	> 99%	97%	CAQ 2% · Parti Quebecois < 1%
Beauce-Sud	safe	Conservatives of Quebec	> 99%	> 99%	—
Beauharnois	2	Parti Quebecois	78%	75%	CAQ 14% · QLP 10% · Conservatives of Quebec 1%
Bellechasse	2	Conservatives of Quebec	98%	94%	Parti Quebecois 4% · CAQ 2%
Bellefeuille	2	Parti Quebecois	85%	80%	QLP 14% · CAQ 4% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Berthier	2	Parti Quebecois	96%	94%	CAQ 4% · Conservatives of Quebec 1% · QLP < 1%
Bertrand	2	Parti Quebecois	96%	95%	QLP 3% · CAQ 2%
Blainville	2	Parti Quebecois	66%	65%	QLP 29% · CAQ 6% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Bonaventure	2	Parti Quebecois	> 99%	95%	QLP 3% · CAQ 2%
Borduas	2	Parti Quebecois	93%	80%	CAQ 17% · QLP 2% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Bourassa-Sauvé	2	QLP	> 99%	91%	Parti Quebecois 8% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Brome-Missisquoi	2	Parti Quebecois	59%	58%	QLP 28% · Conservatives of Quebec 9% · CAQ 5%
Camille-Laurin	1	Parti Quebecois	> 99%	99%	QLP 1%
Chambly	2	Parti Quebecois	87%	83%	QLP 11% · CAQ 5% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Champlain	2	Parti Quebecois	47%	47%	Conservatives of Quebec 32% · CAQ 19% · QLP 2%
Chapleau	2	Parti Quebecois	36%	35%	QLP 32% · CAQ 24% · Conservatives of Quebec 9%
Charlesbourg	2	Conservatives of Quebec	59%	59%	Parti Quebecois 36% · QLP 3% · CAQ 2%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré	2	Parti Quebecois	67%	66%	Conservatives of Quebec 29% · CAQ 4% · QLP 1%
Châteauguay	2	QLP	91%	89%	Parti Quebecois 9% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Chauveau	2	Conservatives of Quebec	99%	94%	Parti Quebecois 5% · CAQ 1%
Chicoutimi	2	Parti Quebecois	57%	55%	CAQ 42% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Chomedey	2	QLP	86%	86%	Conservatives of Quebec 13% · Parti Quebecois < 1%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	2	Conservatives of Quebec	90%	86%	Parti Quebecois 12% · CAQ 2% · QLP < 1%
Côte-du-Sud	2	Conservatives of Quebec	60%	56%	Parti Quebecois 35% · CAQ 5% · QLP 4%
D'Arcy-McGee	1	QLP	93%	93%	Conservatives of Quebec 7%
Daniel-Johnson	2	Parti Quebecois	76%	74%	Conservatives of Quebec 14% · CAQ 9% · QLP 3%
Deux-Montagnes	2	Parti Quebecois	78%	77%	QLP 20% · CAQ 3% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Drummond–Bois-Francs	2	Parti Quebecois	70%	69%	Conservatives of Quebec 24% · CAQ 6% · QLP < 1%
Dubuc	2	Parti Quebecois	81%	79%	CAQ 17% · Conservatives of Quebec 4%
Duplessis	2	Parti Quebecois	94%	92%	Conservatives of Quebec 7% · CAQ < 1%
Fabre	2	QLP	88%	84%	Conservatives of Quebec 12% · Parti Quebecois 4%
Gaspé	safe	Parti Quebecois	> 99%	> 99%	—
Gatineau	2	QLP	69%	67%	Parti Quebecois 22% · Conservatives of Quebec 6% · CAQ 5%
Gouin	2	Quebec Solidaire	99%	96%	Parti Quebecois 3% · QLP < 1%
Granby	2	Parti Quebecois	63%	62%	CAQ 24% · Conservatives of Quebec 8% · QLP 6%
Groulx	2	Parti Quebecois	67%	66%	QLP 28% · CAQ 5% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve	2	Quebec Solidaire	92%	89%	Parti Quebecois 9% · QLP 1%
Hull	2	QLP	88%	85%	Parti Quebecois 12% · Quebec Solidaire 2% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Huntingdon	2	QLP	56%	55%	Parti Quebecois 36% · CAQ 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 4%
Iberville	2	Parti Quebecois	77%	75%	CAQ 18% · QLP 5% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine	safe	Parti Quebecois	> 99%	> 99%	—
Jacques-Cartier	safe	QLP	> 99%	> 99%	—
Jean-Lesage	2	Parti Quebecois	33%	33%	Conservatives of Quebec 33% · Quebec Solidaire 30% · QLP 4%
Jean-Talon	2	Parti Quebecois	73%	71%	QLP 23% · Conservatives of Quebec 5% · Quebec Solidaire < 1%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger	1	QLP	> 99%	> 99%	—
Joliette	safe	Parti Quebecois	> 99%	> 99%	—
Jonquière	2	Parti Quebecois	84%	83%	CAQ 15% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
L'Assomption	2	Parti Quebecois	80%	75%	CAQ 19% · QLP 5% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
La Peltrie	2	Conservatives of Quebec	96%	93%	Parti Quebecois 6% · QLP 1%
La Pinière	1	QLP	> 99%	> 99%	Parti Quebecois < 1%
La Prairie	2	QLP	56%	56%	Parti Quebecois 29% · CAQ 15% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Labelle	2	Parti Quebecois	91%	89%	CAQ 7% · QLP 3% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Lac-Saint-Jean	2	Parti Quebecois	99%	97%	CAQ 1% · Conservatives of Quebec 1%
LaFontaine	1	QLP	> 99%	> 99%	Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Laurier-Dorion	2	Quebec Solidaire	97%	93%	QLP 5% · Parti Quebecois 2%
Laval-des-Rapides	2	QLP	89%	86%	Parti Quebecois 12% · Conservatives of Quebec 1%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice	2	Parti Quebecois	75%	73%	Conservatives of Quebec 20% · CAQ 6% · QLP 1%
Les Plaines	2	Parti Quebecois	83%	81%	QLP 11% · CAQ 7% · Conservatives of Quebec 1%
Lévis	2	Conservatives of Quebec	66%	63%	Parti Quebecois 30% · CAQ 5% · QLP 2%
Lotbinière-Frontenac	2	Conservatives of Quebec	96%	93%	Parti Quebecois 5% · QLP < 1% · CAQ < 1%
Louis-Hébert	2	Parti Quebecois	67%	66%	Conservatives of Quebec 23% · QLP 9% · CAQ 3%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys	2	QLP	> 99%	97%	Conservatives of Quebec 2% · Parti Quebecois < 1%
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie	2	Parti Quebecois	72%	67%	Conservatives of Quebec 21% · CAQ 9% · QLP 2%
Marie-Victorin	2	Parti Quebecois	94%	92%	QLP 7% · Quebec Solidaire < 1%
Marquette	2	QLP	> 99%	97%	Conservatives of Quebec 2% · Parti Quebecois 1%
Maskinongé	2	Parti Quebecois	67%	66%	Conservatives of Quebec 21% · CAQ 11% · QLP 2%
Masson	2	Parti Quebecois	87%	82%	QLP 12% · CAQ 5% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Matane-Matapédia-Mitis	safe	Parti Quebecois	> 99%	> 99%	—
Maurice-Richard	2	Quebec Solidaire	58%	58%	Parti Quebecois 27% · QLP 15% · Conservatives of Quebec 1%
Mégantic	2	Conservatives of Quebec	52%	52%	Parti Quebecois 44% · CAQ 2% · QLP 2%
Mercier	2	Quebec Solidaire	97%	92%	Parti Quebecois 7% · QLP 1%
Mille-Îles	2	QLP	93%	92%	Parti Quebecois 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Mirabel	2	Parti Quebecois	86%	81%	QLP 11% · CAQ 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 1%
Mont-Royal–Outremont	2	QLP	97%	95%	Parti Quebecois 3% · Quebec Solidaire 2%
Montarville	2	Parti Quebecois	77%	75%	QLP 22% · CAQ 3%
Montmorency	2	Conservatives of Quebec	88%	83%	Parti Quebecois 15% · QLP 1% · CAQ < 1%
Nelligan	1	QLP	> 99%	99%	Conservatives of Quebec 1%
Nicolet-Bécancour	2	Parti Quebecois	61%	61%	Conservatives of Quebec 37% · CAQ 2% · QLP < 1%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce	safe	QLP	> 99%	> 99%	—
Orford	2	Parti Quebecois	58%	56%	QLP 36% · Conservatives of Quebec 6% · CAQ 2%
Papineau	2	Parti Quebecois	44%	44%	CAQ 24% · Conservatives of Quebec 20% · QLP 11%
Pierre-Laporte	2	QLP	95%	94%	Parti Quebecois 5%
Pointe-aux-Trembles	2	Parti Quebecois	89%	87%	CAQ 7% · QLP 4% · Quebec Solidaire 1%
Pontiac	2	QLP	> 99%	92%	Conservatives of Quebec 5% · Parti Quebecois 3%
Portneuf	2	Conservatives of Quebec	92%	89%	Parti Quebecois 10% · CAQ 1%
Prévost	2	Parti Quebecois	95%	93%	QLP 4% · CAQ 2% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
René-Lévesque	2	Parti Quebecois	91%	87%	CAQ 10% · Conservatives of Quebec 3%
Repentigny	2	Parti Quebecois	78%	67%	QLP 16% · CAQ 15% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Richelieu	2	Parti Quebecois	91%	77%	CAQ 11% · QLP 10% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Richmond	2	Parti Quebecois	60%	58%	Conservatives of Quebec 32% · CAQ 6% · QLP 4%
Rimouski	safe	Parti Quebecois	> 99%	> 99%	—
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques	2	Parti Quebecois	89%	86%	Conservatives of Quebec 7% · CAQ 6% · QLP < 1%
Robert-Baldwin	1	QLP	> 99%	> 99%	Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Roberval	2	Parti Quebecois	93%	91%	CAQ 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Rosemont	2	Parti Quebecois	55%	54%	Quebec Solidaire 43% · QLP 2%
Rousseau	2	Parti Quebecois	90%	89%	CAQ 7% · Conservatives of Quebec 3% · QLP 1%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue	2	Parti Quebecois	64%	63%	Quebec Solidaire 20% · CAQ 11% · Conservatives of Quebec 7%
Saint-François	2	Parti Quebecois	44%	43%	Quebec Solidaire 22% · QLP 18% · Conservatives of Quebec 17%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne	2	QLP	90%	85%	Quebec Solidaire 14% · Parti Quebecois 1%
Saint-Hyacinthe	2	Parti Quebecois	83%	78%	CAQ 20% · QLP 2% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Saint-Jean	2	Parti Quebecois	92%	89%	CAQ 7% · QLP 4%
Saint-Jérôme	2	Parti Quebecois	94%	81%	CAQ 16% · QLP 3% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Saint-Laurent	1	QLP	> 99%	99%	Conservatives of Quebec 1%
Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques	2	Quebec Solidaire	93%	90%	Parti Quebecois 7% · QLP 2%
Sainte-Rose	2	QLP	75%	48%	Parti Quebecois 47% · Conservatives of Quebec 3% · CAQ 2%
Sanguinet	2	Parti Quebecois	76%	72%	QLP 20% · CAQ 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Sherbrooke	2	Quebec Solidaire	74%	72%	Parti Quebecois 23% · QLP 3% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Soulanges	2	QLP	91%	89%	Parti Quebecois 8% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% · CAQ < 1%
Taillon	2	Parti Quebecois	85%	75%	QLP 23% · CAQ 2% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Taschereau	2	Parti Quebecois	88%	82%	Quebec Solidaire 16% · QLP 1% · Conservatives of Quebec 1%
Terrebonne	2	Parti Quebecois	83%	77%	QLP 20% · CAQ 3% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1%
Trois-Rivières	2	Parti Quebecois	77%	73%	CAQ 14% · Conservatives of Quebec 10% · QLP 3%
Ungava	2	QLP	56%	54%	Parti Quebecois 38% · Conservatives of Quebec 4% · Quebec Solidaire 4%
Vachon	2	QLP	63%	60%	Parti Quebecois 32% · CAQ 5% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Vanier-Les Rivières	2	Conservatives of Quebec	60%	58%	Parti Quebecois 35% · QLP 4% · CAQ 3%
Vaudreuil	2	QLP	> 99%	97%	Conservatives of Quebec 2% · Parti Quebecois < 1%
Verchères	2	Parti Quebecois	95%	92%	CAQ 6% · QLP 2%
Verdun	2	QLP	69%	64%	Quebec Solidaire 28% · Parti Quebecois 7% · Conservatives of Quebec 2%
Viau	2	QLP	89%	86%	Quebec Solidaire 13% · Parti Quebecois < 1%
Vimont-Auteuil	2	QLP	91%	89%	Parti Quebecois 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 5%
Westmount–Saint-Louis	1	QLP	> 99%	> 99%	Conservatives of Quebec < 1%

What this shows, and what it does not

It shows that a real quantum computer can already draw an election at the scale of Quebec, and how much its noise distorts it: qubits sometimes flip, handing ridings to less likely parties.
Readout-error correction, calibrated by IBM for every qubit, removes a good share of that gap. The rest comes from operations between qubits.
It does not make the forecast more accurate: Orbit already computes the same distribution exactly, on an ordinary computer. It is a scientific experiment, run in the open.

IBM jobs: db1i4jeegvvc73bhla6g · db1i4tavog1s73fi5bt0 · db1i5j3id5ic73er5ci0 · db1i5v6egvvc73bhlckg

All our quantum-computer draws

Second experiment

The entangled election: does the joint movement survive the noise?

An election is not decided riding by riding: a polling error or a regional wave moves dozens of ridings in the same direction. We asked two IBM chips to reproduce that joint movement on the ridings our two models find most uncertain — 10, then 30, 60 and 90. Two circuits each time: one without entanglement, where each riding is drawn on its own; the other where two “climate” qubits, entangled with every riding, carry the mood of the campaign. The right answer is known in advance: we compute it exactly on an ordinary computer.

Share of the joint movement recovered

Ridings	Qubits	Two-qubit operations	Perfect machine	Marrakesh	Fez
10	20	105	76%	58%	71%
30	52	370	68%	24%	31%
60	102	928	72%	13%	16%
90	152	1,669	63%	4%	7%

How to read it: 100% = correlations between ridings reproduced perfectly; 0% = no better than the circuit without entanglement, which reproduces none. “Perfect machine”: the same circuit on a noiseless simulator.

How many favourites win, from one draw to the next (standard deviation)

90 ridings: 5.1 under the exact distribution, 3.9 without entanglement, 4.5 with it. The larger it is, the more ridings flip as a block.

What it means for the vote

When ridings move together, the election tends to break one way or the other — very good for the PQ, or clearly less so — rather than landing in the middle. Here are the PQ’s seats according to our two engines, as they are (linked ridings), then with the same chance in each riding but no link between them. The middle zone runs from 58 to 67 seats.

Engine		8 in 10 range	PQ ≤ 55	In the middle	PQ ≥ 70	Majority
Harfang des neiges	linked (reality)	52–67	20%	61%	4%	29%
	independent	56–64	8%	78%	0%	14%
Orbit	linked (reality)	45–73	35%	35%	17%	37%
	independent	54–64	16%	67%	0%	13%

Both engines agree: because ridings move together, a lopsided result in one direction or the other is far more likely than if each riding voted on its own — two to three times more for a PQ below 56 seats, dozens of times more for a PQ at 70 or more. Orbit sees much stronger common movements than our reference forecast: for Orbit, the middle scenario is the minority one. The few close ridings where the two engines disagree are the ones that will decide which way it tips.

What we take away

At small scale, entanglement does its job on a real chip: with 10 ridings it recovers most of the joint movement, which the circuit without entanglement cannot produce at all.
Noise erases it as operations pile up: beyond about a thousand operations between qubits, the shared signal nearly vanishes, and each riding’s chances degrade too.
Both chips agree: we are measuring a property of this generation of machines, not a flaw in one particular chip.
It predicts nothing more: this distribution can be computed exactly on an ordinary computer. It is a benchmark, frozen before the vote, to measure where quantum machines stand.

Machine time for both chips: 22 s.

All 127 ridings: Harfang des neiges, Orbit and the blend

For each riding, the favourite and its chance of winning according to our main forecast (Harfang des neiges), according to Orbit, and according to the 50/50 blend, which averages the two chances. The two models pick the same favourite in 117 of 127 ridings. The other 10 are flagged.

Disagreements only

Riding	Harfang des neiges	Orbit	50/50 blend
Abitibi-Est	Parti Quebecois 55%	Parti Quebecois 47%	Parti Quebecois 51%
Abitibi-Ouest	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois 96%	Parti Quebecois 98%
Acadie	QLP > 99%	QLP 98%	QLP > 99%
Anjou-Louis-Riel	QLP > 99%	QLP 93%	QLP 97%
Argenteuil	Parti Quebecois 79%	Parti Quebecois 75%	Parti Quebecois 77%
Arthabaska-L’Érable	Conservatives of Quebec 88%	Conservatives of Quebec 73%	Conservatives of Quebec 81%
Beauce-Nord	Conservatives of Quebec > 99%	Conservatives of Quebec > 99%	Conservatives of Quebec > 99%
Beauce-Sud	Conservatives of Quebec > 99%	Conservatives of Quebec > 99%	Conservatives of Quebec > 99%
Beauharnois	Parti Quebecois 93%	Parti Quebecois 78%	Parti Quebecois 85%
Bellechasse	Conservatives of Quebec > 99%	Conservatives of Quebec 98%	Conservatives of Quebec 98%
Bellefeuillesplit	CAQ 33%	Parti Quebecois 85%	Parti Quebecois 58%
Berthier	Parti Quebecois 98%	Parti Quebecois 95%	Parti Quebecois 97%
Bertrand	Parti Quebecois 99%	Parti Quebecois 96%	Parti Quebecois 97%
Blainville	Parti Quebecois 72%	Parti Quebecois 67%	Parti Quebecois 69%
Bonaventure	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%
Borduas	Parti Quebecois 97%	Parti Quebecois 92%	Parti Quebecois 95%
Bourassa-Sauvé	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Brome-Missisquoi	Parti Quebecois 55%	Parti Quebecois 57%	Parti Quebecois 56%
Camille-Laurin	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%
Chambly	Parti Quebecois 91%	Parti Quebecois 87%	Parti Quebecois 89%
Champlainsplit	Conservatives of Quebec 48%	Parti Quebecois 44%	Parti Quebecois 43%
Chapleausplit	QLP 73%	Parti Quebecois 34%	QLP 52%
Charlesbourg	Conservatives of Quebec 70%	Conservatives of Quebec 60%	Conservatives of Quebec 65%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré	Parti Quebecois 68%	Parti Quebecois 67%	Parti Quebecois 68%
Châteauguay	QLP 87%	QLP 90%	QLP 88%
Chauveau	Conservatives of Quebec 97%	Conservatives of Quebec 99%	Conservatives of Quebec 98%
Chicoutimi	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois 56%	Parti Quebecois 78%
Chomedey	QLP > 99%	QLP 86%	QLP 93%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	Conservatives of Quebec 86%	Conservatives of Quebec 90%	Conservatives of Quebec 88%
Côte-du-Sud	Conservatives of Quebec 68%	Conservatives of Quebec 59%	Conservatives of Quebec 64%
D'Arcy-McGee	QLP > 99%	QLP 94%	QLP 97%
Daniel-Johnsonsplit	Conservatives of Quebec 51%	Parti Quebecois 74%	Parti Quebecois 42%
Deux-Montagnes	Parti Quebecois 84%	Parti Quebecois 78%	Parti Quebecois 81%
Drummond–Bois-Francs	Parti Quebecois 69%	Parti Quebecois 67%	Parti Quebecois 68%
Dubuc	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois 80%	Parti Quebecois 89%
Duplessis	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois 95%	Parti Quebecois 97%
Fabre	QLP > 99%	QLP 89%	QLP 94%
Gaspé	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%
Gatineau	QLP 96%	QLP 68%	QLP 82%
Gouin	Quebec Solidaire 97%	Quebec Solidaire > 99%	Quebec Solidaire 98%
Granbysplit	CAQ 54%	Parti Quebecois 60%	Parti Quebecois 46%
Groulx	Parti Quebecois 78%	Parti Quebecois 68%	Parti Quebecois 73%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve	Quebec Solidaire 86%	Quebec Solidaire 92%	Quebec Solidaire 89%
Hull	QLP > 99%	QLP 88%	QLP 93%
Huntingdon	QLP 45%	QLP 53%	QLP 49%
Iberville	Parti Quebecois 81%	Parti Quebecois 77%	Parti Quebecois 79%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%
Jacques-Cartier	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Jean-Lesage	Quebec Solidaire 58%	Quebec Solidaire 34%	Quebec Solidaire 46%
Jean-Talon	Parti Quebecois 89%	Parti Quebecois 72%	Parti Quebecois 81%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Joliette	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%
Jonquière	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois 83%	Parti Quebecois 91%
L'Assomption	Parti Quebecois 84%	Parti Quebecois 79%	Parti Quebecois 81%
La Peltrie	Conservatives of Quebec > 99%	Conservatives of Quebec 95%	Conservatives of Quebec 98%
La Pinière	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
La Prairie	QLP 44%	QLP 52%	QLP 48%
Labelle	Parti Quebecois 99%	Parti Quebecois 90%	Parti Quebecois 95%
Lac-Saint-Jean	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois 98%	Parti Quebecois > 99%
LaFontaine	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Laurier-Dorion	Quebec Solidaire 93%	Quebec Solidaire 97%	Quebec Solidaire 95%
Laval-des-Rapides	QLP > 99%	QLP 90%	QLP 95%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice	Parti Quebecois 75%	Parti Quebecois 73%	Parti Quebecois 74%
Les Plaines	Parti Quebecois 84%	Parti Quebecois 83%	Parti Quebecois 83%
Lévis	Conservatives of Quebec 63%	Conservatives of Quebec 66%	Conservatives of Quebec 64%
Lotbinière-Frontenac	Conservatives of Quebec 94%	Conservatives of Quebec 95%	Conservatives of Quebec 95%
Louis-Hébert	Parti Quebecois 77%	Parti Quebecois 66%	Parti Quebecois 71%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoiesplit	Conservatives of Quebec 66%	Parti Quebecois 69%	Conservatives of Quebec 45%
Marie-Victorin	Parti Quebecois 99%	Parti Quebecois 95%	Parti Quebecois 97%
Marquette	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Maskinongé	Parti Quebecois 70%	Parti Quebecois 64%	Parti Quebecois 67%
Masson	Parti Quebecois 90%	Parti Quebecois 87%	Parti Quebecois 88%
Matane-Matapédia-Mitis	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%
Maurice-Richardsplit	Parti Quebecois 37%	Quebec Solidaire 60%	Quebec Solidaire 45%
Mégantic	Conservatives of Quebec 54%	Conservatives of Quebec 53%	Conservatives of Quebec 53%
Mercier	Quebec Solidaire 95%	Quebec Solidaire 98%	Quebec Solidaire 96%
Mille-Îles	QLP > 99%	QLP 94%	QLP 97%
Mirabel	Parti Quebecois 86%	Parti Quebecois 85%	Parti Quebecois 85%
Mont-Royal–Outremont	QLP > 99%	QLP 97%	QLP 98%
Montarville	Parti Quebecois 86%	Parti Quebecois 76%	Parti Quebecois 81%
Montmorency	Conservatives of Quebec 97%	Conservatives of Quebec 88%	Conservatives of Quebec 92%
Nelligan	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Nicolet-Bécancour	Parti Quebecois 58%	Parti Quebecois 59%	Parti Quebecois 58%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Orfordsplit	QLP 75%	Parti Quebecois 56%	QLP 55%
Papineau	Parti Quebecois 46%	Parti Quebecois 42%	Parti Quebecois 44%
Pierre-Laporte	QLP 76%	QLP 95%	QLP 86%
Pointe-aux-Trembles	Parti Quebecois 97%	Parti Quebecois 89%	Parti Quebecois 93%
Pontiac	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Portneuf	Conservatives of Quebec 98%	Conservatives of Quebec 91%	Conservatives of Quebec 95%
Prévost	Parti Quebecois 97%	Parti Quebecois 94%	Parti Quebecois 96%
René-Lévesque	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois 90%	Parti Quebecois 95%
Repentigny	Parti Quebecois 84%	Parti Quebecois 78%	Parti Quebecois 81%
Richelieu	Parti Quebecois 98%	Parti Quebecois 90%	Parti Quebecois 94%
Richmond	Parti Quebecois 84%	Parti Quebecois 58%	Parti Quebecois 71%
Rimouski	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois > 99%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basquessplit	CAQ 41%	Parti Quebecois 89%	Parti Quebecois 58%
Robert-Baldwin	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Roberval	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois 91%	Parti Quebecois 96%
Rosemont	Parti Quebecois 77%	Parti Quebecois 53%	Parti Quebecois 65%
Rousseau	Parti Quebecois 90%	Parti Quebecois 89%	Parti Quebecois 90%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue	Parti Quebecois 91%	Parti Quebecois 62%	Parti Quebecois 77%
Saint-François	Parti Quebecois 79%	Parti Quebecois 42%	Parti Quebecois 60%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne	QLP > 99%	QLP 89%	QLP 94%
Saint-Hyacinthe	Parti Quebecois 88%	Parti Quebecois 83%	Parti Quebecois 86%
Saint-Jean	Parti Quebecois 97%	Parti Quebecois 91%	Parti Quebecois 94%
Saint-Jérôme	Parti Quebecois 97%	Parti Quebecois 93%	Parti Quebecois 95%
Saint-Laurent	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques	Quebec Solidaire 80%	Quebec Solidaire 93%	Quebec Solidaire 87%
Sainte-Rose	QLP 97%	QLP 77%	QLP 87%
Sanguinet	Parti Quebecois 81%	Parti Quebecois 75%	Parti Quebecois 78%
Sherbrookesplit	Parti Quebecois 56%	Quebec Solidaire 75%	Quebec Solidaire 60%
Soulanges	QLP 83%	QLP 90%	QLP 86%
Taillon	Parti Quebecois 95%	Parti Quebecois 84%	Parti Quebecois 89%
Taschereau	Parti Quebecois 94%	Parti Quebecois 87%	Parti Quebecois 90%
Terrebonne	Parti Quebecois 97%	Parti Quebecois 83%	Parti Quebecois 90%
Trois-Rivières	Parti Quebecois 76%	Parti Quebecois 74%	Parti Quebecois 75%
Ungava	QLP 57%	QLP 56%	QLP 57%
Vachon	QLP 47%	QLP 60%	QLP 54%
Vanier-Les Rivières	Conservatives of Quebec 76%	Conservatives of Quebec 60%	Conservatives of Quebec 68%
Vaudreuil	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%
Verchères	Parti Quebecois > 99%	Parti Quebecois 94%	Parti Quebecois 97%
Verdun	QLP 98%	QLP 68%	QLP 83%
Viau	QLP > 99%	QLP 88%	QLP 94%
Vimont-Auteuil	QLP 99%	QLP 92%	QLP 95%
Westmount–Saint-Louis	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%	QLP > 99%

Orbit and Harfang des neiges, figures as of October 4, 2026

Party by party

Parti Quebecois +6 Harfang

Vote: 29.5%
Vote Harfang: 28.2%
Chance of a majority: 37%

QLP −2 Harfang

Vote: 24.0%
Vote Harfang: 24.1%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Conservatives of Quebec −3 Harfang

Vote: 19.8%
Vote Harfang: 20.1%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

Quebec Solidaire +2 Harfang

Vote: 10.2%
Vote Harfang: 10.8%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

CAQ −3 Harfang

Vote: 15.5%
Vote Harfang: 15.3%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

The vote, with its margin of uncertainty

The solid bar is Orbit’s projected vote; the thin line, an 8-in-10 range; the black tick, our reference forecast.

Parti Quebecois 29.5%
QLP 24.0%
Conservatives of Quebec 19.8%
CAQ 15.5%
Quebec Solidaire 10.2%

Where the two engines disagree

Bellefeuille Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 85% Harfang (classical): CAQ
Champlain Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 44% Harfang (classical): Conservatives of Quebec
Chapleau Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 34% Harfang (classical): QLP
Daniel-Johnson Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 74% Harfang (classical): Conservatives of Quebec
Granby Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 60% Harfang (classical): CAQ
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 69% Harfang (classical): Conservatives of Quebec
Maurice-Richard Orbit (quantum): Quebec Solidaire · 60% Harfang (classical): Parti Quebecois
Orford Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 56% Harfang (classical): QLP
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 89% Harfang (classical): CAQ
Sherbrooke Orbit (quantum): Quebec Solidaire · 75% Harfang (classical): Parti Quebecois

Orbit’s instruments

Voters who switched sides since the last election

30.3 at least, in points of the electorate

Average gap between pollsters

± 2.1 points, around the most likely state

Cone of possibilities until election day

± 0.4 points of maximum movement for a party at 30%

Days to election

1 October 5, 2026

The test of the past

We replayed past elections using only the polls known the day before the vote. Here is the average gap, per party, between projected seats won and the real results — the same measure as our track record. Lower is better.

Election	Orbit gap	Harfang gap	Ridings called right (Orbit)
Quebec 2022	1.6	1.8	92%
Quebec 2018	4.0	6.5	82%

How Orbit works, in three ideas

Opinion travels on a sphere

A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.

Polls are measurements

As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.

Qubits instead of dice

Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.

Read the full explanation