Riding profile

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Îles-de-la-Madeleine: a safe seat for the PQ?

Editorial read

Îles-de-la-Madeleine, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the PQ in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 71% vote share, against 13% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Joël Arseneau

Sits with PQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PQ Incumbent
    Joël Arseneau

    Joël Arseneau

    Proud representative of the Îles-de-la-Madeleine in the National Assembly, Joël Arseneau is an outstanding Member. While the Parti Québécois had only three Members, he succeeded in making our political formation effective on several files by leading important battles on many issues, notably in health and social services.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger

    Gil Thériault

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
58.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 71.4%
  • CAQ 12.9%
  • PLQ 11.6%
  • Other 1.8%
  • PCQ 1.2%
  • QS 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PLQ Other
HereÎles-de-la-Madeleine 71.4%12.9%11.6%1.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +41.4 20.3% −7.4 27.2% −15.5 2.0% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
PQ
Margin
6.4 pts
Turnout
75.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+51.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joël Arseneau Elected PQ 3,877 46.4 —
Jonathan Lapierre CAQ 3,338 39.9 —
Gil Thériault PLQ 606 7.3 —
Jean-Philippe Déraspe QS 450 5.4 —
Evan Leblanc PCQ 93 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026