Riding profile

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Îles-de-la-Madeleine: a safe seat for the PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
49.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 64.0%

    Joël Arseneau incumbent

  • QLP 14.3%

    Gil Thériault

  • CAQ 13.9%

    Linda Lebel

  • PCQ 3.9%

    Evan Leblanc

  • QS 2.3%

    Zachary Jean

  • Other 1.5%

    Mélodie Caron Parti nul

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ QLP CAQ PCQ
HereÎles-de-la-Madeleine 64.0%14.3%13.9%3.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +36.1 23.4% −9.1 21.3% −7.3 16.1% −12.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Îles-de-la-Madeleine, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the PQ in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 64% vote share, against 14% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Joël Arseneau

Sits with PQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PQ Incumbent
    Joël Arseneau

    Joël Arseneau

    Proud representative of the Îles-de-la-Madeleine in the National Assembly, Joël Arseneau is an outstanding Member. While the Parti Québécois had only three Members, he succeeded in making our political formation effective on several files by leading important battles on many issues, notably in health and social services.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Linda Lebel

    Linda Lebel

    A resident of the Îles-de-la-Madeleine for 30 years, Linda Lebel wants to enter provincial politics to defend the interests of the Madelinots. She aspires to protect the territory of the Îles-de-la-Madeleine, which her grandparents and great-grandparents built. Linda Lebel is a strong defender of the regions and shares Christine Fréchette’s vision, which takes into account the different realities experienced by them. With experience as the owner of Chocolaterie Eaux Iles and in politics, Linda now wishes to become a member of the National Assembly.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Mélodie Caron

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Evan Leblanc

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Gil Thériault

    Gil Thériault

    Originally from Havre-aux-Maisons in the Magdalen Islands, Gil Thériault directs the coastal fishers’ association. After communications studies and travelling the world, he settled in the Islands, where he has served his community for decades. A recognized Quebec fisheries figure, especially in seal hunting, he has shared his expertise internationally. He recently became municipal councillor and a Canadian Ranger. He has also been a journalist, food columnist, lecturer and photographer, and authored several books. × I commit to voting for Gil Thériault as member for Îles-de-la-Madeleine

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Zachary Jean

    Zachary Jean

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
PQ
Margin
6.4 pts
Turnout
75.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+42.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joël Arseneau Elected PQ 3,877 46.4 —
Jonathan Lapierre CAQ 3,338 39.9 —
Gil Thériault QLP 606 7.3 —
Jean-Philippe Déraspe QS 450 5.4 —
Evan Leblanc PCQ 93 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026