Rhode Island

Governor’s race · Rhode Island

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 17%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 47.0%

Helena Foulkes
Other 32.2%
Republican 20.8%

Aaron Guckian

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 98% chance (88% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	88%
Orbit	Democrat	98%
50/50 blend	Democrat	93%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Other	Republican
Rhode Island	47.0%	32.2%	20.8%
National averageUnited States	50.0%−3.0	3.6%+28.7	46.4%−25.6

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

10 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	747	likely voters	Democrat 55 Independent and others 36 Republican 8	See the poll
Emerson College WPRI-TV	8–Oct 11, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 48 Independent and others 41 Republican 12	See the poll
Embold Research Salve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy	5–Oct 8, 2026	815	likely voters	Democrat 39 Independent and others 29 Republican 17	See the poll
Opinion Diagnostics	23–Sep 25, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 41 Independent and others 24 Republican 19	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	596	likely voters	Democrat 44 Independent and others 27 Republican 17	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	20–Aug 24, 2026	715	likely voters	Democrat 40 Independent and others 22 Republican 15	See the poll
Emerson College WPRI-TV	21–Aug 22, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 45 Independent and others 23 Republican 18	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	18–Jun 23, 2026	630	likely voters	Democrat 38 Republican 22 Independent and others 19	See the poll
Emerson College WPRI-TV	14–May 16, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 39 Republican 21 Independent and others 19	See the poll
Opinion Diagnostics	13–Apr 16, 2026	802	likely voters	Democrat 33 Independent and others 18 Republican 16	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Dan McKee · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Helena Foulkes
source
Other Open seat

CD Reynolds
source
Other Open seat

Jasjit Gotra
source
Other Open seat

Ken Block
source
Republican Open seat

Aaron Guckian
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 19.0 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 15.0 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026