Race profile
Rhode Island
The question
Rhode Island: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this race stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereRhode Island | 51.6% | 25.9% | 22.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 49.1% +2.5 | 48.2% −22.3 | 2.7% +19.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
5 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University Of New Hampshire | 20–Aug 24 | 715 | LV | link | |
| Emerson College WPRI-TV | 21–Aug 22 | 1,000 | LV | link | |
| University Of New Hampshire | 18–Jun 23 | 630 | LV | link | |
| Emerson College WPRI-TV | 14–May 16 | 1,000 | LV | link | |
| Opinion Diagnostics | 13–Apr 16 | 802 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
Rhode Island elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 19 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 52% vote share, against 26% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting governor
Dan McKee
Party Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Jonathan Coker
- Other Challenger
Ken Block
-
Republican Challenger Emmanuel Adjei
Previous election · 2022
Elsewhere on the map
Other races to watch
Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_governor_2026